000
AXUS74 KEWX 241849
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-081900-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1249 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING A DRIER PERIOD IN LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER
THE LAST HALF OF NOVEMBER HAS TURNED WETTER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSED A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ON NOVEMBER
19TH AND 20TH. THIS RAINFALL EVENT HAS HELPED PUSH MONTHLY
RAINFALL TOTALS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
MONTH TO DATE. THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE NOT SEEN AS MUCH
RAINFALL AND REMAIN BELOW TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONTHLY
RAINFALL TOTALS.

THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER HAS JUST ABOUT
WIPED OUT THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT ISSUES...BUT SOME LONGER TERM
DROUGHT EFFECTS CONTINUE. AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS HAVE
SHOWN ONLY MINIMAL RISES. THESE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID NOVEMBER 17TH AND ISSUED
NOVEMBER 19TH...SHOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IN (D0)...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
(D2)...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE RAINFALL
THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. A LARGE PART OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS WAS IN (D1)...MODERATE DROUGHT TO (D3) EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE COUNTIES REMAINING IN (D3)...EXTREME
DROUGHT STATUS WERE REAL...UVALDE...ZAVALA AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF KINNEY...MAVERICK COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS
COUNTY. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY SHOW FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS
WHEN THE NEXT MAP IS ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 26TH.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
RECENT WET WEATHER. AS OF NOVEMBER 23TH BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR
4 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...DIMMIT...KARNES...MAVERICK AND VAL
VERDE COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT
THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE`S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN
ORDER TO ENSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN.

THE NOVEMBER 24TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THAT THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAD A KBDI OF 200 TO 500. KINNEY AND MAVERICK
COUNTIES HAD VALUES OF 500 TO 600. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY HAD A KBDI OF 0 TO 200. THE TEXAS
FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND
RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.
THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY.
EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO
SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

IN THE NOVEMBER 24TH TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY
TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS WERE NOTED. RAIN CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THE AGRICULTURAL
SITUATION...WITH MORE RAIN FORECAST BECAUSE OF EL NINO. OVER THE
LAST THREE MONTHS...RAIN HAS BEEN ABOUT 165 PERCENT OF THE LONG-TERM
AVERAGE. THE RAINS WILL MAKE POSSIBLE EARLY SPRING PLANTING. COOL
WEATHER HELPED CONSERVE MOISTURE. FORAGE AVAILABILITY IMPROVED.
SMALL GRAINS WERE MAKING EXCELLENT PROGRESS. THE PECAN
HARVEST WAS NEARLY COMPLETE. THE CABBAGE...PICKLING
CUCUMBER...GREEN BEAN AND PEANUT HARVEST WERE ONGOING.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

AFTER A BRIEF DRY SPELL IN LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER
RAINFALL HAS ONCE AGAIN PICKED UP. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED
ENOUGH RAINFALL TO BRING YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS FREQUENT AND AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LOWER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
FOR THE YEAR TO DATE TOTALS...AUSTIN BERGSTROM HAS NOW GONE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON YEARLY RAINFALL TO DATE...WHILE ALL SITES REMAINED
SLIGHTLY BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2009 TO MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER
23, 2009 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                 2009 RAINFALL   NORMAL TO DATE   DEPARTURE
AUSTIN MABRY         28.48            30.65        -2.17
AUSTIN BERGSTROM     31.13            31.56        +0.43
SAN ANTONIO          28.74            30.47        -1.73
DEL RIO              11.69            17.89        -6.20

SO FAR IN NOVEMBER...DEL RIO RECORDED 0.46 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.34 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.80 OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SAN ANTONIO HAS RECORDED 2.06 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN
NOVEMBER. THIS IS 0.03 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.09 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 1.1 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AUSTIN CAMP MABRY HAS RECORDED 2.51 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN
NOVEMBER AND THIS THIS IS 0.39 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF
2.12 INCH. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 2.1 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM HAS RECORDED 2.35 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN
NOVEMBER. THIS IS 0.04 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.39 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 1.7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY NOVEMBER 30TH
A WETTER AND COLDER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 23RD AND VALID DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH DECEMBER
7TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY MADE ON
NOVEMBER 19TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RECENT RAINFALL AND THE TREND FOR CONTINUING RAINFALL HAS
HELPED TO LESSEN THE AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
CONTINUE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS ON RESERVOIRS...
LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EVAPORATION RATES WILL BE HELD DOWN AND LEVELS
WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED.
AREA AQUIFERS ARE DOING BETTER AND HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR LATE NOVEMBER. MOST STOCK TANKS HAVE FILLED OR AT
LEAST NOW HAVE WATER IN THEM.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT (NORMAL)
RANGE OR IN THE 76 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT (ABOVE NORMAL) RANGE FOR
MOST BASINS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE. THE SAN ANTONIO BASIN AND LOWER GUADALUPE BASIN ARE
IN THE GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT (MUCH ABOVE NORMAL) RANGE. OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS THE STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENT
(BELOW NORMAL) RANGE.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF NOVEMBER 24TH...

MOST AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN SEVERAL FEET BELOW
NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE WET PATTERN SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL (FT)     LATEST ELEVATION (FT)
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2                 1017.32
CANYON LAKE         909                    898.48
LAKE TRAVIS         681                    651.35
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020                    995.60
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791                    794.80
LAKE AMISTAD       1117                   1114.98

LAKE GEORGETOWN HAS RISEN ABOVE NORMAL POOL DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE REGION.

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS NO LONGER IN MANDATORY
WATER RESTRICTIONS SINCE THE EDWARDS AQUIFER HAS RISEN ABOVE
THE 660 FOOT LEVEL AND HAS REMAINED AT OR ABOVE THE 660 FOOT
LEVEL FOR 30 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN 6
MONTHS THAT MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN IN PLACE. YEAR
ROUND WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NOW IN PLACE AND RESIDENTS
ARE URGED TO USE WATER WISELY.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

THE CITY OF AUSTIN REMAINS UNDER STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS
IN AUSTIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

KERRVILLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO HAS GONE BACK INTO
YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THE BARTON SPRINGS/EDWARDS AQUIFER
CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS IMPLEMENTED LESS RESTRICTIVE WATER
RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 20 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
PUMPAGE FOR ALL OF ITS WATER USERS.

MANY LOCATIONS NO LONGER HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE
YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY DECEMBER 11TH OR SOONER AS
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE NAY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$