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574
FXUS64 KEWX 301704
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1204 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TAFS BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z...BECOMING SCT AND VFR BY MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 36 HOUR TAFS. MOSTLY
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KTS
TONIGHT. EXCEPTION IS AT KDRT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
MORNING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA WHERE THERE ARE LOWER AMOUNTS OF INHIBITION AND WEAKER SURFACE
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR GREATER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO 10 PERCENT WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT OBS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG AND SE OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL LIFT AND
BECOME SCT BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES PREVAILING ALL AREAS LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT AND BECOME SCT VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH...BUT STABLE AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
PREVENT ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE
UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AS WELL AS GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DUE TO MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MESSY FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT
LINGERS/WASHES OUT OVER OUR AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DEFINITIVE
STABILIZING PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD JUST ENOUGH TO END CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATED BY THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM NEXT WEEK...BUT DUE TO PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE RE-MOISTENING OF SOILS FROM EXPECTED RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  74  94  74  92 /  10  -   30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  72  94  72  91 /  10  -   30  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  96  73  92 /  -   -   20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  72  91  72  88 /  10  -   30  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  78  99  79  95 /   0  -   20  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  92  72  89 /  10  -   30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  97  74  94 /   0   0  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  73  95  73  92 /  -   -   20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  75  94  76  90 /  10  -   30  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  76  96  76  93 /  -   -   20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  97  75  94 /  -   -   20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






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