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119
FXUS64 KEWX 020851
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







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