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966 FXUS64 KEWX 180443 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1143 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AS CIGS OF 1-2 THSD FEET DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO S CENTRAL TX INCLUDING THE I35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...SPREADING NWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND TOWARD KDRT BY SUNRISE. ORGANIZED TSRA ACROSS NW AND N TX THIS EVENING WERE TRACKING SEWD AND PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT THE KAUS AREA AFTER 08Z INTO TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING VFR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONVECTION COULD DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE KSAT/KSSF TAF SITES AS WELL. GIVE LOW PROBABILITIES AND UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT SHRA/TSRA OUT OF TAFS UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE AND TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. PREVAILING S-SE WINDS AT 5-12 KNOTS...EXCEPT VARIABLE IN AND NEAR TSRA...WITH A BRIEF NELY WIND SHIFT BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/ UPDATE... A CLUSTER OF STORMS/MCS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ONE OF THEM PASSING OVER SAN ANGELO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER GRIDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR FIRST PERIOD. NEW UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SCT CU AT 5-7 THSD FEET WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS ABOVE AND SLY SFC WINDS AT 8-12 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR AND SPREADING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA IN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTHWARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND RESULT IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD ALSO RESULT IN A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR KAUS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NOW. CONVECTION IN WEST TX IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIFT AND SCT TO VFR MOST AREAS BY 16-17Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... AN EARLY MORNING MCS THAT ROLLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS MANAGED TO PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. WE WILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. WE WILL MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE LATEST GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE/LL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO AUSTIN LINE. IF THE HI-RES MODELS VERIFY...RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO SEND ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER TEXAS FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE. ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION GIVEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 77 99 76 99 / - 10 20 10 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 76 98 75 98 / - 10 20 10 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 94 75 97 75 97 / - 10 10 10 - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 75 95 74 95 / 10 20 20 20 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 77 95 76 95 / - - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 76 96 74 96 / 20 20 20 20 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 96 75 95 / - - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 97 75 97 / - 10 10 10 - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 76 97 76 97 / - 10 20 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 96 76 96 / - - 10 10 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 96 75 96 / - - - 10 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12