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408
FGUS65 KSTR 061709
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jan 03, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March and seasonal
volumes for Jan - July and Apr - July.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
Dec observed (est.) (Colorado Diamond Ck 661.0 + Muddy River 2.4
  + Virgin River 14.3 - Powell Release 595.0) ~ 82.7 KAF

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

   January    70  KAF ( 88% of average)
   February   90  KAF ( 89% of average)
   March     100  KAF ( 92% of average)

April - July Forecast:     240 KAF ( 87% of average)

January - July Forecast:   500 KAF ( 88% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

   Jan 10.0 KAF ( 74% of median or 52% of average)
   Feb 10.0 KAF ( 72% of median or 61% of average)
   Mar 12.0 KAF ( 81% of median or 51% of average)

          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

   Jan  1.0 KAF ( 64% of median or 6% of average)
   Feb  3.5 KAF ( 174% of median or 20% of average)
   Mar  7.0 KAF ( 34% of median or 23% of average)

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee`s Ferry

   Jan  1.5 KAF (124% of median or 91% of average)
   Feb  1.7 KAF (116% of median or 88% of average)
   Mar  2.0 KAF (123% of median or 90% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

CBRFC

NNNN

$$









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