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092
FGUS63 KKRF 261514
ESGYEL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LK WY BLO
YLOW4               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LAMAR R AT TOWER FALLS WY
TFLW4              15.0  16.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS MT
CORM8              11.0  12.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON MT 5S
LIVM8               9.5  10.0  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHIELDS R AT LIVINGSTON MT 7NE
SLDM8               5.5   6.3   6.8    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER MT 1E
BTMM8               7.0   8.0   9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:STILLWATER R AT ABSAROKEE MT 1NE
SRAM8               6.5   6.8   7.2    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN AT BELFRY MT 10SW
BFYM8               8.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R AT EDGAR MT
EDGM8               8.5   9.5  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS MT 1NE
BILM8              13.5  14.5  15.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TONGUE R AT BIRNEY MT
BNYM8               6.0   7.0   8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PUMPKIN CR AT MILES CITY MT
PMKM8              13.0  15.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TONGUE R AT MILES CITY MT 2S
MICM8              10.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0830 Z DH12 /DC1408261009/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:YELLOWSTONE R
YLOW4       4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7

:LAMAR R
TFLW4       1.8/    1.8/    2.1/    2.6/    3.0/    4.0/    5.2

:YELLOWSTONE R
CORM8       2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    3.6/    4.3
LIVM8       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    4.5/    4.6

:SHIELDS R
SLDM8       1.7/    1.7/    1.8/    2.1/    2.3/    2.7/    3.0

:BOULDER R
BTMM8       3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    3.4/    3.7/    4.2/    4.6

:STILLWATER R
SRAM8       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.2/    3.9/    4.5/    4.7

:CLKS FK YLLWSTN
BFYM8       1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.9/    3.4/    4.4/    5.2

:CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R
EDGM8       2.8/    2.8/    2.9/    3.0/    4.9/    6.1/    6.8

:YELLOWSTONE R
BILM8       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.8/    5.5/    6.0

:TONGUE R
BNYM8       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3

:PUMPKIN CR
PMKM8       3.4/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.8/    7.8/   10.3

:TONGUE R
MICM8       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    4.4/    6.2

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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