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201
FGUS63 KMSR 211423
ESGWIS

WISCONSIN..TREMPEALEAU..BLACK..LA CROSSE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
922 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Trempealeau River
DDGW3             9.0   11.0   12.0     7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black River
NEIW3            18.0   20.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BRFW3            47.0   51.0   55.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GALW3            12.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wisconsin River
RRLW3            11.0   13.5   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ROTW3            25.0   27.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WIRW3            12.0   13.5   14.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Yellow River
BBCW3            12.0   15.9   16.6    17   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wisconsin River
PORW3            17.0   18.0   19.0    14    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Baraboo River
RSPW3            18.5   21.0   23.0    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
BBOW3             9.0   10.5   12.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BABW3            16.0   22.0   23.1    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wisconsin River
MUSW3             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kickapoo River
LAFW3            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VIOW3            14.0   17.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
REAW3            11.0   14.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SOGW3            13.0   16.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GMIW3            13.0   15.0   17.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
STEW3            12.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Trempealeau River
DDGW3       5.0/    5.0/    5.8/    6.7/    8.5/    8.9/    9.2
:Black River
NEIW3       3.5/    3.8/    6.0/    7.6/    9.0/   10.8/   13.5
BRFW3      36.3/   36.4/   38.1/   40.7/   42.9/   45.1/   49.3
GALW3       3.5/    3.5/    4.9/    7.3/    8.7/   10.3/   12.4
:Wisconsin River
RRLW3       6.1/    6.1/    6.5/    7.7/    8.3/    9.2/   10.0
ROTW3      14.9/   15.0/   16.1/   18.5/   19.8/   21.9/   22.2
WIRW3       3.8/    3.8/    4.4/    5.6/    6.7/    7.7/    9.7
:Yellow River
BBCW3       2.2/    2.2/    4.4/    7.5/   11.0/   13.8/   14.8
:Wisconsin River
PORW3      11.4/   11.4/   12.7/   15.0/   16.6/   17.5/   18.0
:Baraboo River
RSPW3       9.4/    9.8/   10.9/   12.9/   14.5/   16.9/   18.2
BBOW3       2.8/    2.9/    3.2/    4.1/    4.9/    5.9/    6.3
BABW3       7.7/    7.9/    9.1/   10.6/   12.3/   14.9/   16.0
:Wisconsin River
MUSW3       2.1/    2.2/    3.3/    4.9/    6.0/    6.9/    7.7
:Kickapoo River
LAFW3       2.8/    3.1/    4.1/    5.0/    6.4/    7.4/    8.5
VIOW3       7.1/    7.9/    9.4/   10.6/   11.7/   12.7/   13.4
REAW3       3.8/    4.1/    5.3/    6.6/    8.2/    9.0/   10.6
SOGW3       4.4/    5.1/    7.5/    8.8/   10.4/   11.0/   12.2
GMIW3       6.5/    6.8/    8.0/    9.3/   11.1/   11.6/   13.0
STEW3       6.5/    6.6/    7.7/    8.8/   10.6/   11.0/   11.7
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Trempealeau River
DDGW3       5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5
:Black River
NEIW3       3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8
BRFW3      36.0/   35.9/   35.9/   35.7/   35.7/   35.7/   35.7
GALW3       3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9
:Wisconsin River
RRLW3       5.3/    5.0/    4.6/    4.4/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0
ROTW3      13.9/   13.7/   13.0/   12.6/   12.3/   12.2/   12.1
WIRW3       3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    2.9/    2.2/    2.1/    1.1
:Yellow River
BBCW3       2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
:Wisconsin River
PORW3      10.7/   10.5/   10.4/   10.2/   10.0/    9.8/    9.8
:Baraboo River
RSPW3       8.9/    8.9/    8.8/    8.6/    8.3/    8.2/    8.1
BBOW3       2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6
BABW3       6.9/    6.8/    6.7/    6.4/    6.1/    6.1/    6.0
:Wisconsin River
MUSW3       1.6/    1.5/    1.3/    1.1/    0.9/    0.8/    0.7
:Kickapoo River
LAFW3       2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6
VIOW3       7.0/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9/    6.8/    6.8/    6.8
REAW3       3.8/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6
SOGW3       4.2/    4.1/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4
GMIW3       6.4/    6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0/    5.9/    5.9
STEW3       6.4/    6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0/    5.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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