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673
FGUS63 KMSR 241911
ESGUPM

UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Black River
BESM4            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ontonagon River
RKLM4            25.0   26.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sturgeon River
SNWM4            12.0   15.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chocolay River
HRVM4            10.0   11.5   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle Branch Escanaba River
HUMM4             6.5    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Branch Escanaba River
GNNM4             7.0    9.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sturgeon River
ALSM4             8.0   11.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pine River
RUDM4            17.0   19.0   21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1124 Z DH12 /DC1411241910/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Black River
BESM4       1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.4/    2.2/    2.8
:Ontonagon River
RKLM4       6.4/    6.4/    6.4/    6.4/    6.5/    7.0/    7.5
:Sturgeon River
SNWM4       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    5.0/    5.2
:Chocolay River
HRVM4       2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    3.3/    3.5
:Middle Branch Escanaba River
HUMM4       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.6/    3.0
:East Branch Escanaba River
GNNM4       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.3/    1.9
:Sturgeon River
ALSM4       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.2/    4.8/    5.0
:Pine River
RUDM4       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.3/    4.4/    5.7/    7.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1124 Z DH12 /DC1411241910/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Black River
BESM4       0.8/    0.8/    0.8/    0.8/    0.8/    0.8/    0.8
:Ontonagon River
RKLM4       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0
:Sturgeon River
SNWM4       4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9
:Chocolay River
HRVM4       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8
:Middle Branch Escanaba River
HUMM4       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7
:East Branch Escanaba River
GNNM4       0.6/    0.6/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5
:Sturgeon River
ALSM4       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7
:Pine River
RUDM4       1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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