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775
FGUS63 KKRF 232012
ESGUDT

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
252 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:LITTLE MUDDY CR AT WILLISTON ND 10NE
LMCN8              10.0  12.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LTL MISSOURI R AT CAMP CROOK SD
CACS2              12.0  17.0  19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE MISSOURI R AT MARMARTH ND
MTHN8              18.0  23.0  30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LTL MISSOURI R AT MEDORA ND
MDAN8              15.0  18.0  20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE MISSOURI R AT WATFORD CITY ND14S
WTFN8              20.0  24.0  30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KNIFE R AT MANNING ND
MNGN8              15.0  17.0  20.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SPRING CR AT ZAP ND
ZAPN8              14.0  18.0  20.0    <5    6   <5    5   <5   <5
:KNIFE R AT HAZEN ND 1S
HZNN8              21.0  24.0  25.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:HEART R AT MANDAN ND 3W
MDNN8              17.0  23.0  28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:APPLE CR AT MENOKEN ND 6W
MENN8              15.0  16.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231452/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE MUDDY CR
LMCN8       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.6/    5.2

:LTL MISSOURI R
CACS2       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    3.9/    4.9/    6.9

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
MTHN8       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    3.0/    4.1/    4.6

:LTL MISSOURI R
MDAN8       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    3.3/    5.0/    5.4

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
WTFN8      -0.6/   -0.6/   -0.6/   -0.6/    0.1/    2.0/    2.3

:KNIFE R
MNGN8       6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.4/    7.2

:SPRING CR
ZAPN8       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.4/    7.3/   10.3

:KNIFE R
HZNN8       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    3.2/   10.7/   17.4

:HEART R
MDNN8       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    3.1/    5.8

:APPLE CR
MENN8       5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    6.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231452/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE MUDDY CR
LMCN8       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3

:LTL MISSOURI R
CACS2       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
MTHN8       1.7/    1.7/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4

:LTL MISSOURI R
MDAN8       2.1/    2.1/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
WTFN8      -0.8/   -0.8/   -1.1/   -1.1/   -1.1/   -1.1/   -1.1

:KNIFE R
MNGN8       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1

:SPRING CR
ZAPN8       4.9/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8

:KNIFE R
HZNN8       1.6/    1.3/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1

:HEART R
MDNN8      -0.2/   -0.6/   -0.9/   -1.0/   -1.0/   -1.0/   -1.0

:APPLE CR
MENN8       5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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