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240
FGUS64 KTUA 261649
ESGTOP

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1048 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  11/25/2014 - 02/23/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Cottonwood River
EMPK1            20.0   24.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Neosho River
AMCK1            26.0   27.0   40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EPRK1            19.0   19.5   30.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NEOK1            22.0   23.0   44.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BRLK1            27.0   40.0   45.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LRYK1            23.0   23.0   38.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 1126 Z DH12 /DC201411261648/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  11/25/2014 - 02/23/2015
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Cottonwood River
EMPK1    1.6/   1.7/   2.2/   3.7/   4.4/   7.1/  10.6

:Neosho River
AMCK1    2.6/   2.7/   3.3/   3.8/   6.1/   9.2/  12.6
EPRK1    8.7/   8.8/   9.3/   9.7/  10.5/  12.1/  13.6
NEOK1    0.9/   0.9/   1.8/   2.8/   4.6/   7.7/  13.3
BRLK1    5.9/   6.0/   7.2/   9.7/  12.5/  15.1/  19.3
LRYK1    1.8/   2.7/   4.7/   7.6/  11.3/  14.8/  18.1

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$





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