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698
FGUS63 KMSR 221210
ESGTMN

TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN MINNESOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:South Branch Buffalo River
SABM5            12.0   15.0   19.0    50   41    6   <5   <5   <5
:Buffalo River
HWYM5             7.0    9.0   11.0    18   26   12   12   <5   <5
DILM5            12.0   20.0   26.0    56   53    9    9   <5   <5
:Wild Rice River
TWVM5            10.0   12.0   14.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
HNDM5            20.0   28.0   32.0    27   36   10   13   <5   <5
:Marsh River
SHYM5            14.0   20.0   23.0     6   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sand Hill River
CLXM5            20.0   25.0   30.0    <5   10   <5    6   <5   <5
:Red Lake River
HIGM5            12.0   12.5   13.0    <5   12   <5    9   <5    9
CRKM5            15.0   23.0   25.0    27   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Snake River
MKLM5            67.0   71.0   76.0     7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
ALVM5           106.0  108.0  110.0    16   10   10    7   <5   <5
:Two Rivers River
HLLM5           802.0  806.0  810.0   >95   38   13   20   <5   <5
:Roseau River
ROSM5            16.0   18.0   19.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211210/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Branch Buffalo River
SABM5       7.2/    7.3/    9.6/   12.2/   13.3/   14.6/   15.5
:Buffalo River
HWYM5       4.5/    4.5/    4.6/    5.6/    6.6/    9.3/    9.9
DILM5       6.9/    6.9/    8.6/   12.8/   15.5/   20.3/   21.9
:Wild Rice River
TWVM5       2.9/    2.9/    3.2/    4.9/    6.9/    9.4/   11.1
HNDM5       7.0/    7.1/    8.6/   13.7/   20.5/   29.1/   29.9
:Marsh River
SHYM5       5.1/    5.1/    5.2/    8.3/   11.2/   13.8/   15.2
:Sand Hill River
CLXM5       6.6/    6.6/    7.4/    8.2/   11.6/   18.8/   21.2
:Red Lake River
HIGM5       7.9/    8.0/    9.2/    9.7/   10.5/   11.6/   12.2
CRKM5      10.1/   10.1/   10.2/   11.8/   16.0/   20.1/   22.2
:Snake River
MKLM5      63.9/   63.9/   64.0/   64.2/   65.2/   66.6/   69.6
ALVM5     104.8/  104.8/  104.8/  104.8/  105.6/  108.3/  109.7
:Two Rivers River
HLLM5     803.2/  803.2/  803.2/  803.3/  804.4/  806.9/  808.2
:Roseau River
ROSM5       8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    9.0/   11.4/   14.1/   16.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211210/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Branch Buffalo River
SABM5       6.1/    5.7/    5.5/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0
:Buffalo River
HWYM5       3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
DILM5       4.8/    4.5/    4.2/    4.0/    3.8/    3.6/    3.6
:Wild Rice River
TWVM5       2.7/    2.6/    2.4/    2.1/    1.9/    1.5/    1.1
HNDM5       4.2/    3.4/    2.5/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:Marsh River
SHYM5       4.4/    4.2/    4.1/    3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8
:Sand Hill River
CLXM5       5.2/    5.0/    4.8/    4.7/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5
:Red Lake River
HIGM5       1.2/    1.1/    0.6/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5
CRKM5       5.6/    5.3/    4.5/    4.0/    3.7/    3.4/    3.2
:Snake River
MKLM5      61.8/   61.7/   61.6/   61.5/   61.3/   61.3/   61.3
ALVM5      98.2/   98.1/   97.8/   97.5/   97.3/   97.2/   97.2
:Two Rivers River
HLLM5     795.3/  795.0/  794.7/  794.4/  794.2/  794.0/  793.9
:Roseau River
ROSM5       6.0/    5.9/    5.9/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.3
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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