weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Extended Streamflow Guidance
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    
[Printable]
746
FGUS63 KMSR 251932
ESGTIA

MAQUOKETA..WAPSIPINICON..SKUNK RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
231 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4            14.0   17.0   20.0    20   20   13   13   <5    7
MAQI4            24.0   26.0   28.5     9   16    6    7   <5    6
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4            12.0   13.0   15.0     6    9    6    6    6    6
ANSI4            14.0   15.5   19.0    18   27   13   20    6    9
DEWI4            11.0   11.5   12.5    52   66   43   64   16   29
:South Skunk River
AMEI4            12.5   16.0   16.5    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4            10.0   14.0   15.5    15   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Skunk River
AESI4            21.5   23.5   24.5    13   18    6    6   <5   <5
CFXI4            18.0   19.0   21.0    10   10    6    6   <5   <5
OOAI4            24.5   28.5   30.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Skunk River
SIGI4            16.0   18.0   21.0    47   52   27   33    7    7
:Skunk River
AGSI4            15.0   17.0   20.0    40   47   23   29   13   15

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0324 Z DH12 /DC1403241931/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       6.1/    7.0/    8.1/    9.5/   12.8/   18.5/   20.0
MAQI4      12.4/   12.7/   14.6/   16.6/   19.3/   23.8/   28.1
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       6.4/    6.6/    7.0/    7.8/    8.6/   11.1/   16.1
ANSI4       8.3/    8.8/    9.5/   11.0/   13.3/   16.8/   20.7
DEWI4       8.5/    9.0/    9.7/   11.2/   12.1/   13.0/   13.5
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       4.5/    4.7/    6.3/    7.6/    9.5/   11.2/   12.9
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       3.5/    3.8/    4.8/    6.1/    7.5/   12.6/   13.7
:South Skunk River
AESI4      12.8/   13.6/   15.7/   18.2/   20.5/   22.9/   24.0
CFXI4       8.7/    9.0/   10.7/   13.4/   16.0/   18.1/   19.2
OOAI4       9.9/   10.3/   13.0/   18.3/   21.2/   23.6/   25.0
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       6.9/    9.4/   12.7/   15.9/   18.5/   20.1/   21.8
:Skunk River
AGSI4       3.2/    6.6/    9.2/   13.3/   16.8/   21.2/   22.6
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0324 Z DH12 /DC1403241931/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       4.1/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5
MAQI4      11.7/   11.4/   10.9/   10.5/   10.2/    9.9/    9.8
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       5.2/    5.1/    5.0/    4.8/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5
ANSI4       6.1/    5.9/    5.5/    5.1/    4.9/    4.7/    4.6
DEWI4       6.6/    6.1/    5.7/    5.2/    4.7/    4.3/    4.3
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       3.3/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       1.7/    1.6/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    0.6/    0.2
:South Skunk River
AESI4       9.5/    9.0/    8.5/    8.5/    8.4/    8.3/    8.2
CFXI4       7.2/    7.1/    6.5/    6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0
OOAI4       8.5/    8.3/    7.9/    7.7/    7.2/    6.8/    6.7
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       5.7/    5.3/    4.9/    4.5/    4.2/    3.8/    3.6
:Skunk River
AGSI4       2.9/    2.7/    2.0/    1.8/    1.4/    1.1/    0.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE