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492
FGUS63 KKRF 251552
ESGSPL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
949 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  11/29/2014 - 2/27/2015 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE CO
SPTC2               7.0   9.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLUM CR AT SEDALIA CO 1W
LOVC2               8.0  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAR CR AT MORRISON CO
MRRC2               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAR CR AT SHERIDAN CO
SHRC2               8.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT DENVER CO
DNVC2              11.0  12.5  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLEAR CR AT GOLDEN CO 1WSW
GLDC2              10.0  13.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLEAR CR AT DERBY CO
DRBC2               9.0  10.5  11.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT HENDERSON CO
HNDC2              10.0  11.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK BIG THOMPSON R AT DRAKE CO
DKKC2               6.0   7.0   8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE AT FT COLLINS CO 9NW
FTDC2               7.5   9.0  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE R AT FT COLLINS CO
POUC2              10.5  11.5  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY CO
GRPC2               8.0   9.5  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT KERSEY CO
KERC2              10.0  11.5  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT WELDONA CO 3SE
WNAC2              10.0  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT BALZAC CO
BZNC2              10.0  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT JULESBURG CO CH 2
JULC2              10.0  12.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT ROSCOE NE 1SE
RSON1               9.0  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT NORTH PLATTE NE NO.2
NPSN1              13.0  14.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1129 Z DH12 /DC1411250949/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 11/29/2014 - 2/27/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SOUTH PLATTE R
SPTC2       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.9

:PLUM CR
LOVC2       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.4/    3.6/    3.8

:BEAR CR
MRRC2       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2
SHRC2       2.6/    2.7/    2.7/    2.7/    2.8/    2.9/    2.9

:SOUTH PLATTE R
DNVC2       3.3/    3.4/    3.4/    3.5/    3.8/    4.0/    4.2

:CLEAR CR
GLDC2       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.8/    3.9/    4.0
DRBC2       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.3/    2.4/    2.5

:SOUTH PLATTE R
HNDC2       5.1/    5.2/    5.2/    5.3/    5.5/    5.7/    6.0

:N FK BIG THOMPSON R
DKKC2       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.8

:CACHE LA POUDRE
FTDC2       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    3.3

:CACHE LA POUDRE R
POUC2       2.2/    2.2/    2.3/    2.3/    2.4/    2.5/    2.6

:CACHE LA POUDRE
GRPC2       2.9/    2.9/    3.0/    3.1/    3.2/    3.6/    3.6

:SOUTH PLATTE R
KERC2       4.2/    4.2/    4.3/    4.4/    4.6/    4.9/    5.1
WNAC2       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.8/    3.9/    4.2/    4.2
BZNC2       3.8/    3.9/    4.0/    4.1/    4.3/    4.6/    4.9
JULC2       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3
RSON1       4.8/    4.9/    4.9/    5.0/    5.2/    5.4/    5.7
NPSN1       7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1129 Z DH12 /DC1411250949/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 11/29/2014 - 2/27/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SOUTH PLATTE R
SPTC2       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1

:PLUM CR
LOVC2       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1

:BEAR CR
MRRC2       5.9/    5.9/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8
SHRC2       2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5

:SOUTH PLATTE R
DNVC2       3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:CLEAR CR
GLDC2       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4
DRBC2       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1

:SOUTH PLATTE R
HNDC2       4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7

:N FK BIG THOMPSON R
DKKC2       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6

:CACHE LA POUDRE
FTDC2       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:CACHE LA POUDRE R
POUC2       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6

:CACHE LA POUDRE
GRPC2       2.8/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5

:SOUTH PLATTE R
KERC2       4.0/    3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7
WNAC2       3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
BZNC2       3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1
JULC2       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0
RSON1       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3
NPSN1       6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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