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582
FGUS63 KMSR 212339
ESGSMW

SAGINAW RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Chippewa River
MPTM4             8.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tobacco River
BVTM4            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pine River
ALMM4             8.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MPRM4            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tittabawassee River
MIDM4            24.0   25.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shiawassee River
OWOM4             7.0    9.0   10.0     9    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
FRGM4            10.0   14.0   15.0     9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kearsley Creek
DAVM4            10.0   11.0   12.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Flint River
FLTM4            13.0   15.0   17.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cass River
CSSM4            14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VSSM4            14.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FRNM4            17.0   20.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saginaw River
SAGM4            17.0   19.0   24.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407212338/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Chippewa River
MPTM4       3.3/    3.5/    3.7/    4.5/    5.2/    5.6/    6.7
:Pine River
ALMM4       2.7/    2.7/    3.1/    3.8/    4.9/    6.1/    7.8
MPRM4       3.5/    3.5/    3.7/    4.1/    4.7/    5.5/    8.1
:Tittabawassee River
MIDM4      10.6/   10.7/   11.3/   13.6/   16.0/   18.8/   21.1
:Shiawassee River
OWOM4       2.7/    2.7/    2.9/    3.4/    4.9/    7.3/    8.5
FRGM4       3.1/    3.1/    3.4/    4.5/    6.6/    9.9/   12.3
:Kearsley Creek
DAVM4       4.1/    4.2/    4.5/    5.6/    7.1/    9.9/   10.7
:Flint River
FLTM4       5.0/    5.1/    5.5/    6.3/    7.9/   12.3/   14.6
:Cass River
CSSM4       4.8/    4.8/    5.4/    6.0/    7.9/    9.2/   10.4
VSSM4       3.0/    3.1/    3.6/    5.1/    7.3/    9.4/   11.2
FRNM4       4.4/    4.5/    5.1/    7.2/   11.4/   14.5/   17.4
:Saginaw River
SAGM4      11.1/   11.2/   11.6/   12.3/   13.8/   16.4/   17.7
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407212338/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Chippewa River
MPTM4       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
:Pine River
ALMM4       1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2
MPRM4       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9
:Tittabawassee River
MIDM4       9.9/    9.9/    9.7/    9.7/    9.6/    9.5/    9.5
:Shiawassee River
OWOM4       2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1
FRGM4       2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.7/    1.6
:Kearsley Creek
DAVM4       3.8/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6
:Flint River
FLTM4       3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1
:Cass River
CSSM4       4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.5
VSSM4       2.8/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6
FRNM4       4.1/    3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7/    3.6
:Saginaw River
SAGM4      10.7/   10.7/   10.7/   10.7/   10.6/   10.6/   10.6
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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