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301
FGUS64 KTUA 281813
ESGSHV

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
112 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  8/28/2014 - 11/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Red River
DEKT2            24.0   27.0   30.0    10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
INGA4            25.0   26.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FLTA4            27.0   30.0   32.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Glover River
GLOO2            16.0   19.0   22.0    21   23   13   15    5    7

:Little River
IDBO2            30.0   32.0   34.0    22   28   12   19   <5   11
HRGA4            27.0   28.5   30.0    17   18   13   10    9    5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0828 Z DH12 /DC201408281812/DRD+6/DVD91/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  8/28/2014 - 11/27/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Red River
DEKT2    9.8/  11.0/  13.5/  16.5/  20.2/  24.2/  26.3
INGA4    1.7/   2.4/   3.7/   6.1/   9.5/  14.0/  17.5
FLTA4    0.1/   0.7/   2.3/   5.0/   8.7/  14.1/  16.3

:Glover River
GLOO2    4.4/   5.4/   6.5/  11.7/  14.7/  20.2/  22.3

:Little River
IDBO2    9.0/  10.5/  13.0/  24.6/  29.5/  32.5/  33.8
HRGA4    9.1/  10.6/  13.3/  19.5/  24.3/  29.8/  31.3

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$





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