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382
FGUS63 KKRF 221544
ESGNPL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1042 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:NORTH PLATTE R AT NORTHGATE CO 4NW
NGTC2               8.0   9.5  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ENCAMPMENT R AT ENCAMPMENT WY 8NE
ECRW4               6.5   7.5   8.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT SARATOGA WY
SRAW4               8.5   9.5  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT SINCLAIR WY 7NE
SINW4               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MEDICINE BOW R AT HANNA WY 10N
HANW4               6.0   7.0   8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT CASPER WY 1NW
CPRW4               8.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT GLENROCK WY 5ESE
GLNW4              10.0  11.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT ORIN WY 2E
ORIW4               8.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LARAMIE R AT WOODS LNDNG WY 3NE
WODW4               6.0   6.5   7.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LARAMIE R AT LARAMIE WY
LLRW4               5.0   6.0   7.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LARAMIE R AT BOSLER WY 2S
BOSW4               7.5   8.5   9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LARAMIE R AT FT LARAMIE WY 5SSW
FLAW4               7.0   8.0   9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT HENRY NE 1S
HENN1               5.5   6.5   7.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT MITCHELL NE 1S
MICN1               7.5   8.5   9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT MINATARE NE 2SW
MNTN1               7.5   8.5   9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT BRIDGEPORT NE 1NNE
BGPN1               9.5  10.0  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT LISCO NE 1S
LSON1               4.0   5.0   6.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT LEWELLEN NE NO CH
LEWN1               7.5   8.5   9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT NORTH PLATTE NE
NPTN1               6.0   6.5   7.0    13   72   <5   12   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407221042/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:NORTH PLATTE R
NGTC2       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.6

:ENCAMPMENT R
ECRW4       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.6/    2.9/    3.2

:NORTH PLATTE R
SRAW4       5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.4
SINW4       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    4.0/    4.4

:MEDICINE BOW R
HANW4       2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    3.4

:NORTH PLATTE R
CPRW4       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.7/    3.7/    3.8/    3.8
GLNW4       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.4/    3.4/    3.5
ORIW4       5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.3/    5.3

:LARAMIE R
WODW4       1.5/    1.5/    1.6/    1.7/    1.8/    2.0/    2.2
LLRW4       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.2/    1.6
BOSW4       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.8
FLAW4       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.8/    4.0/    4.2/    4.3

:NORTH PLATTE R
HENN1       3.9/    4.0/    4.0/    4.1/    4.1/    4.2/    4.2
MICN1       4.3/    4.4/    4.5/    4.6/    5.0/    5.5/    5.7
MNTN1       4.6/    4.6/    4.7/    4.8/    5.0/    5.3/    5.5
BGPN1       5.3/    5.3/    5.4/    5.5/    5.7/    6.0/    6.0
LSON1       2.3/    2.3/    2.4/    2.4/    2.6/    2.9/    2.9
LEWN1       6.6/    6.6/    6.7/    6.7/    6.9/    7.1/    7.2
NPTN1       5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.9/    6.0/    6.0/    6.1

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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