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922
FGUS63 KKRF 232014
ESGMTA

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
253 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOLDIER R AT PISGAH IA
PSGI4              28.0  29.0  30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOYER R AT LOGAN IA
LGNI4              19.0  22.0  25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEEPING WATER CR AT UNION NE 2SE
UION1              25.0  28.0  30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA R AT ATLANTIC IA 5SW
ATCI4              19.0  23.0  24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA R AT RED OAK IA #2
RDOI4              18.0  22.0  27.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST NISHNABOTNA R AT HANCOCK IA
HNKI4              14.0  19.0  23.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST NISHNABOTNA R AT RANDOLPH IA 1W
RDPI4              19.0  22.0  24.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NISHNABOTNA R AT HAMBURG IA 2NE
HMBI4              25.0  27.0  33.0     8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE NEMAHA R AT AUBURN NE 1NE
ABRN1              22.0  23.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TARKIO R AT FAIRFAX MO 1W
FFXM7              17.0  18.0  25.0    32   13   27   13   19    7
:N FK BIG NEMAHA R AT HUMBOLDT NE
HBLN1              28.0  29.5  31.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TURKEY CR AT SENECA KS 8NW
SNCK1              21.0  23.5  40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG NEMAHA R AT FALLS CITY NE
FLLN1              27.0  33.0  36.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NODAWAY R AT CLARINDA IA 1E
ICLI4              23.0  26.0  29.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NODAWAY R AT BURLINGTON JUNCTION MO 1W
BRLM7              23.0  28.0  35.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:E FK 102 R AT BEDFORD IA 1SSE
BDFI4              24.0  25.0  26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 R AT MARYVILLE MO 2E
MYVM7              18.0  23.0  28.0    15    6   <5    5   <5   <5
:102 R AT ROSENDALE MO
RSDM7              18.0  18.1  23.0    16    6   15    6   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT AGENCY MO 4NE
AGYM7              20.0  25.0  30.0    52   17   23    9   <5   <5
:LITTLE PLATTE R AT SMITHVILLE MO
SMHM7              27.0  30.5  35.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT SHARPS STATION MO
SSTM7              26.0  29.0  33.0    32   19   14   10   <5    5
:PLATTE R AT PLATTE CITY MO
PLCM7              20.0  25.0  29.0    <5   17   <5    9   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231453/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SOLDIER R
PSGI4       3.8/    3.8/    4.4/    5.4/    7.0/    8.5/   10.2

:BOYER R
LGNI4       4.1/    4.2/    5.5/    7.4/    9.8/   12.4/   17.4

:WEEPING WATER CR
UION1       3.1/    3.1/    5.3/    6.8/    8.3/   15.9/   22.4

:EAST NISHNABOTNA R
ATCI4       3.8/    3.8/    4.7/    5.5/    7.1/   10.2/   13.2
RDOI4       7.3/    7.3/    8.8/    9.7/   12.3/   15.3/   18.5

:WEST NISHNABOTNA R
HNKI4       4.1/    4.1/    5.2/    6.3/    8.0/    9.6/   13.8
RDPI4      10.5/   10.5/   10.9/   13.0/   15.4/   17.1/   19.5

:NISHNABOTNA R
HMBI4      12.4/   12.4/   13.3/   16.7/   21.1/   23.1/   26.1

:LITTLE NEMAHA R
ABRN1       3.0/    3.5/    7.2/    9.8/   12.2/   16.7/   21.0

:TARKIO R
FFXM7       7.8/    8.7/   10.2/   12.3/   19.0/   27.1/   27.9

:N FK BIG NEMAHA R
HBLN1       2.9/    3.0/    4.4/    5.8/    8.0/   10.0/   11.6

:TURKEY CR
SNCK1       1.3/    1.3/    4.5/    7.3/   11.2/   14.0/   15.4

:BIG NEMAHA R
FLLN1       4.0/    4.7/    6.5/    8.8/   12.6/   16.1/   18.3

:NODAWAY R
ICLI4      11.2/   11.3/   12.1/   12.9/   14.0/   17.7/   20.2
BRLM7       6.3/    6.7/    8.8/   11.0/   13.4/   19.3/   24.3

:E FK 102 R
BDFI4      11.1/   13.7/   14.9/   16.3/   17.6/   20.9/   23.1

:102 R
MYVM7       6.3/    8.7/   10.1/   12.3/   15.0/   21.1/   22.4
RSDM7       3.7/    7.2/   10.1/   13.1/   15.8/   20.1/   22.0

:PLATTE R
AGYM7       7.5/   10.7/   15.7/   20.4/   24.8/   28.4/   28.9

:LITTLE PLATTE R
SMHM7      14.6/   14.6/   16.3/   17.3/   18.4/   21.2/   26.7

:PLATTE R
SSTM7       5.9/   12.6/   19.3/   25.3/   26.9/   29.7/   31.0
PLCM7       1.0/    7.6/   13.6/   19.6/   23.5/   28.3/   29.7
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231453/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SOLDIER R
PSGI4       3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:BOYER R
LGNI4       3.8/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4

:WEEPING WATER CR
UION1       2.9/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0

:EAST NISHNABOTNA R
ATCI4       3.3/    3.3/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1
RDOI4       6.9/    6.6/    6.3/    6.1/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0

:WEST NISHNABOTNA R
HNKI4       2.9/    2.7/    2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
RDPI4       9.4/    9.1/    8.6/    8.3/    8.0/    7.9/    7.9

:NISHNABOTNA R
HMBI4      11.3/   10.5/    9.8/    9.4/    9.0/    8.8/    8.7

:LITTLE NEMAHA R
ABRN1       2.9/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6

:TARKIO R
FFXM7       5.8/    5.7/    5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3

:N FK BIG NEMAHA R
HBLN1       2.7/    2.4/    2.3/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1

:TURKEY CR
SNCK1       1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0

:BIG NEMAHA R
FLLN1       3.8/    3.7/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4

:NODAWAY R
ICLI4      11.0/   10.9/   10.7/   10.7/   10.6/   10.6/   10.6
BRLM7       6.0/    5.8/    5.4/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0

:E FK 102 R
BDFI4      10.9/   10.9/   10.8/   10.8/   10.6/   10.6/   10.6

:102 R
MYVM7       6.2/    6.1/    5.9/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6
RSDM7       3.4/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:PLATTE R
AGYM7       6.5/    6.4/    5.9/    5.7/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5

:LITTLE PLATTE R
SMHM7      12.4/   12.4/   12.4/   12.4/   12.3/   12.2/   12.0

:PLATTE R
SSTM7       4.6/    4.5/    4.2/    3.5/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2
PLCM7      -0.6/   -0.7/   -1.1/   -1.8/   -2.0/   -2.3/   -2.3

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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