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430
FGUS63 KMSR 211213
ESGMIS

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LOCK AND DAM 20 AT CANTON..MISSOURI
TO CHESTER..ILLINOIS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7            18.0   20.0   23.0    53   40   45   32   17   14
:Mississippi River
CANM7            14.0   20.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
UINI2            17.0   18.0   22.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HNNM7            16.0   22.0   24.0     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
SVRM7            16.0   20.0   22.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LUSM7            15.0   20.0   25.0    12    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
CLKM7            25.0   31.0   33.0    12   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
CAGM7            26.0   30.0   34.0     9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201212/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7      10.1/   11.6/   13.2/   18.9/   22.1/   23.9/   24.1
:Mississippi River
CANM7       7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    8.1/    9.9/   12.9/   14.4
UINI2      12.5/   12.5/   12.5/   12.8/   13.5/   15.8/   17.4
QLDI2       7.9/    7.9/    7.9/    9.5/   11.2/   14.6/   16.2
HNNM7      11.5/   11.5/   11.5/   12.6/   13.4/   15.6/   16.7
SVRM7       8.3/    8.3/    8.3/    9.9/   11.3/   14.8/   16.4
LUSM7      12.0/   12.0/   12.0/   12.1/   12.6/   15.6/   16.6
CLKM7      19.0/   19.0/   19.0/   20.8/   21.9/   25.8/   26.9
CAGM7      18.9/   18.9/   18.9/   20.9/   22.5/   26.3/   27.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201212/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7       3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1
:Mississippi River
CANM7       4.5/    4.0/    3.4/    3.0/    2.6/    2.4/    2.2
UINI2      11.7/   11.6/   11.2/   10.9/   10.9/   10.9/   10.9
QLDI2       5.0/    4.6/    4.0/    3.6/    3.2/    2.9/    2.7
HNNM7      10.3/   10.0/    9.9/    9.8/    9.7/    9.6/    9.6
SVRM7       5.9/    5.5/    4.9/    4.5/    4.2/    4.0/    3.9
LUSM7      11.9/   11.9/   11.9/   11.8/   11.8/   11.8/   11.8
CLKM7      16.0/   15.4/   14.6/   14.2/   13.8/   13.4/   13.3
CAGM7      15.8/   15.3/   14.5/   14.1/   13.6/   13.3/   13.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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