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825
FGUS63 KMSR 211856
ESGMIN

MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2            17.0   22.0   24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
BSLM5           971.5  973.0  975.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Redwood River
MSHM5            14.0   15.0   16.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RWDM5             6.0   15.0   16.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5            11.0   13.0   16.0     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
MVOM5            14.0   16.0   17.5    12   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
GTEM5           888.5  893.5  896.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MNKM5            22.0   25.0   30.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
HENM5           732.0  736.0  739.5     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
JDNM5            25.0   28.0   34.0     9    9    7    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407211855/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2      10.4/   10.4/   10.4/   10.6/   12.7/   14.2/   15.1
:Redwood River
MSHM5       7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    8.6/    9.9/   10.9/   11.8
RWDM5       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    3.0/    3.8/    4.9/    8.1
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    5.5/    7.0/    9.8/   11.8
:Minnesota River
MVOM5      10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   11.5/   15.1/   15.4
GTEM5     883.7/  883.7/  883.7/  883.7/  884.0/  885.2/  886.2
MNKM5       6.7/    6.7/    6.7/    8.5/   12.0/   16.2/   23.3
HENM5     720.2/  720.2/  720.2/  722.1/  726.3/  729.7/  734.9
JDNM5      11.9/   11.9/   11.9/   13.9/   20.5/   25.1/   30.5
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407211855/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2      10.2/   10.1/   10.0/    9.7/    9.7/    9.7/    9.7
:Redwood River
MSHM5       7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9
RWDM5       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       2.7/    2.6/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       5.6/    5.2/    4.9/    4.6/    4.3/    4.0/    4.0
GTEM5     882.0/  881.8/  881.7/  881.5/  881.4/  881.2/  881.2
MNKM5       4.1/    3.8/    3.4/    3.1/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7
HENM5     716.6/  715.8/  715.3/  714.7/  714.3/  714.1/  714.0
JDNM5       8.2/    7.4/    6.9/    6.3/    5.9/    5.8/    5.7
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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