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595
FGUS63 KMSR 211935
ESGMEN

MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
235 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Michigamme River
WLKM4             9.0   10.0   12.0    13   21    6   12   <5   <5
:Paint River
CRYM4             7.0    8.0    9.5    10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Menominee River
FLOW3             9.0   11.0   13.0    32   18    6   <5   <5   <5
NIAW3            13.0   15.0   16.0    30   18    9   <5   <5   <5
VLCM4            15.0   17.0   19.0    15   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCAW3            15.0   18.0   19.0   >95   40   10    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       7.6/    7.6/    7.7/    8.2/    8.6/    9.4/   10.5
:Paint River
CRYM4       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.8/    6.3/    7.3/    7.6
:Menominee River
FLOW3       8.1/    8.2/    8.2/    8.5/    9.3/   10.5/   11.3
NIAW3      12.3/   12.4/   12.4/   12.5/   13.2/   14.9/   15.5
VLCM4      13.5/   13.5/   13.6/   13.7/   14.5/   16.3/   17.1
MCAW3      16.1/   16.1/   16.1/   16.2/   16.8/   18.1/   18.6
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       3.3/    3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Paint River
CRYM4       2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5
:Menominee River
FLOW3       4.2/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6
NIAW3       6.7/    6.6/    6.4/    6.2/    6.0/    5.9/    5.7
VLCM4       6.7/    6.5/    6.3/    6.2/    6.0/    5.9/    5.8
MCAW3      10.3/   10.1/    9.9/    9.8/    9.6/    9.5/    9.5
.END

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 4--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZXT/QTVFZX9/QTVFZXH
.B1 /QTVFZX5/QTVFZXG/QTVFZX1/QTVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      2.06/   2.09/   2.13/   2.36/   2.59/   3.01/   3.67
:Paint River
CRYM4      3.56/   3.58/   3.62/   3.84/   4.55/   6.20/   6.61
:Menominee River
FLOW3      6.82/   6.85/   6.93/   7.54/   8.93/  11.38/  13.13
NIAW3     10.55/  10.60/  10.65/  10.95/  12.33/  16.22/  17.73
VLCM4     12.61/  12.66/  12.72/  13.08/  14.69/  18.69/  20.68
MCAW3     16.59/  16.64/  16.72/  16.94/  18.80/  22.81/  24.59
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      3.25/   3.27/   3.30/   3.67/   4.23/   5.08/   6.09
.END


IN TABLE 5 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOWS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 5--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZNT/QTVFZN9/QTVFZNH
.B1 /QTVFZN5/QTVFZNG/QTVFZN1/QTVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      0.28/   0.26/   0.22/   0.19/   0.18/   0.16/   0.16
:Paint River
CRYM4      0.53/   0.50/   0.46/   0.42/   0.39/   0.37/   0.36
:Menominee River
FLOW3      1.62/   1.55/   1.44/   1.34/   1.25/   1.18/   1.14
NIAW3      2.32/   2.19/   2.02/   1.90/   1.77/   1.67/   1.60
VLCM4      2.65/   2.38/   2.20/   2.06/   1.90/   1.81/   1.74
MCAW3      3.55/   3.21/   3.00/   2.77/   2.61/   2.48/   2.42
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      0.55/   0.52/   0.44/   0.40/   0.38/   0.35/   0.33
.END



:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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