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315
FGUS63 KKRF 221507
ESGMDT

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CANNONBALL R AT REGENT ND
REGN8              22.0  24.0  26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR CR AT RALEIGH ND 19S
RLGN8              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CANNONBALL R AT BREIEN ND
BREN8              10.0  20.0  23.0    15   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CR AT LINTON ND 1W
BVRN8               9.0  11.0  13.0    <5   22   <5   13   <5   10
:GRAND R AT LITTLE EAGLE SD 1S
LIES2              15.0  17.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MOREAU R AT FAITH SD 14NW
FTHS2              16.0  18.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MOREAU R AT WHITEHORSE SD 2SE
WHIS2              21.0  23.0  25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT STATE LINE WY-SD
BWSW4              15.0  16.0  18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT STURGIS SD 20NE
SBFS2              15.0  17.0  19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT ELM SPRINGS SD 4NW
EMSS2              19.0  22.0  24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHEYENNE R AT WASTA SD 3E
WASS2              14.0  16.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHEYENNE R AT PLAINVIEW SD
PLNS2              16.0  17.0  19.0     9   10   <5    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407221005/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:CANNONBALL R
REGN8       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    6.7/    7.7/    9.6/   10.6

:CEDAR CR
RLGN8       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    3.6/    5.6/    6.8/    7.5

:CANNONBALL R
BREN8       3.4/    3.4/    4.2/    7.4/    9.5/   10.6/   11.7

:BEAVER CR
BVRN8       4.7/    4.7/    4.9/    5.2/    6.8/    7.5/    7.9

:GRAND R
LIES2       4.1/    4.1/    4.2/    5.2/    9.5/   11.3/   12.4

:MOREAU R
FTHS2       1.4/    1.4/    1.5/    2.6/    5.8/    8.4/   12.5
WHIS2       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    6.1/    8.1/   13.0/   16.5

:BELLE FOURCHE R
BWSW4       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.3/    5.8
SBFS2       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/   12.1/   14.2
EMSS2       5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/   13.5/   15.5

:CHEYENNE R
WASS2       1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    2.3/    5.1/    6.4
PLNS2       9.0/    9.0/    9.0/    9.0/    9.7/   15.5/   16.8

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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