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362
FGUS63 KKRF 251333
ESGMDC

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
831 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  3/29/2014 - 6/27/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT READING KS 3N
RDNK1              19.0  21.0  45.0    35   43   22   36   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT LYNDON KS 3ENE
LNDK1              10.0  16.0  24.0    22   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT SCIPIO KS 1SE
SIPK1              23.0  25.0  33.0    70   62   62   45   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT LANE KS NO.2
LNEK1              23.0  24.0  28.5    48   53   37   42   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0329 Z DH12 /DC1403250831/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 3/29/2014 - 6/27/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
RDNK1       3.4/    4.0/    4.8/   15.1/   20.8/   22.9/   23.7

:SALT CR
LNDK1       1.1/    1.6/    2.5/    5.7/    9.7/   11.8/   13.8

:POTTAWATOMIE CR
SIPK1      10.4/   12.3/   18.5/   25.2/   26.4/   27.0/   27.3
LNEK1      10.9/   12.7/   17.9/   23.0/   25.5/   26.8/   27.6

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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