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869
FGUS63 KMSR 221613
ESGM10

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO
LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1112 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5            14.0   18.0   20.0     9    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5            18.0   24.0   26.0     9   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5            12.0   16.0   18.0    13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
HOUM5            15.0   17.0   18.0    13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DCHI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    20   18    6   <5   <5   <5
:Turkey River
EKDI4            12.0   16.0   20.0    41   33   10   10    6   <5
GRBI4            17.0   20.0   23.0    26   20   13   10    6    7
:Mississippi River
LKCM5            16.0   18.0   20.0    12   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
WABM5            12.0   14.0   16.0   >95   41    6   12   <5   <5
ALMW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MSCM5           660.0  662.0  665.0    15   18   <5   10   <5   <5
WIDM5           656.0  659.0  661.0    15   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
WNAM5            13.0   15.0   18.0    30   29    7   15   <5   <5
TREW3           647.0  649.0  651.0    23   21   <5   12   <5   <5
LCRM5           641.0  643.0  645.0    16   18   <5    9   <5   <5
LACW3            12.0   13.0   15.5    21   24    7   15   <5   <5
GENW3           631.0  634.0  636.0    38   35   <5    7   <5   <5
LNSI4            17.0   19.0   20.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
LYNW3           625.0  628.0  631.0    10   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCGI4            16.0   20.0   23.0    50   36    9   12   <5   <5
GTTI4            15.0   18.0   21.0    27   32    7    9   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211612/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       3.7/    4.4/    5.3/    6.9/    8.0/   13.5/   17.9
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       8.1/    8.1/    9.3/   11.4/   13.6/   18.5/   21.3
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       3.0/    3.4/    3.9/    5.7/    9.1/   13.0/   16.0
:Root River
HOUM5       5.7/    5.8/    6.4/    9.4/   12.1/   16.1/   16.4
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       3.1/    3.5/    4.6/    5.5/    7.2/    9.1/   11.4
DCHI4       8.6/    9.2/   10.5/   11.5/   13.7/   16.1/   19.5
:Turkey River
EKDI4       7.6/    7.8/    9.4/   10.9/   14.1/   17.6/   21.7
GRBI4       9.2/    9.4/   11.0/   13.4/   17.1/   21.9/   28.2
:Mississippi River
LKCM5      14.2/   14.2/   14.2/   14.3/   15.1/   16.1/   17.0
WABM5      12.2/   12.2/   12.3/   12.3/   12.8/   13.6/   14.4
ALMW3      11.0/   11.0/   11.0/   11.1/   11.9/   13.0/   14.0
MSCM5     658.0/  658.1/  658.1/  658.2/  659.3/  660.5/  661.7
WIDM5     653.6/  653.7/  653.7/  653.8/  655.0/  656.4/  657.5
WNAM5      12.1/   12.1/   12.2/   12.3/   13.5/   14.9/   16.1
TREW3     645.8/  645.8/  645.9/  646.0/  646.9/  648.0/  648.9
LCRM5     639.4/  639.4/  639.5/  639.6/  640.6/  641.6/  642.5
LACW3      11.0/   11.0/   11.1/   11.2/   12.0/   12.8/   13.5
GENW3     630.4/  630.4/  630.5/  630.7/  631.5/  632.6/  633.5
LNSI4      12.1/   12.1/   12.2/   12.5/   13.5/   15.1/   16.1
LYNW3     622.4/  622.4/  622.5/  622.8/  623.8/  625.4/  626.4
MCGI4      15.0/   15.1/   15.2/   16.1/   17.2/   20.0/   21.6
GTTI4      13.5/   13.6/   13.7/   14.2/   15.2/   17.4/   18.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211612/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       2.9/    2.8/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       5.9/    5.5/    5.2/    4.9/    4.5/    4.4/    3.8
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:Root River
HOUM5       3.5/    3.4/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
DCHI4       7.5/    7.5/    7.3/    7.2/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1
:Turkey River
EKDI4       6.2/    6.1/    5.8/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4
GRBI4       7.1/    6.9/    6.4/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0
:Mississippi River
LKCM5       7.7/    7.1/    6.7/    6.3/    6.1/    5.9/    5.9
WABM5       7.9/    7.6/    7.4/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9
ALMW3       5.5/    5.1/    4.8/    4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2
MSCM5     652.0/  651.6/  651.4/  651.2/  651.1/  651.1/  651.0
WIDM5     646.8/  646.4/  646.1/  645.9/  645.7/  645.6/  645.6
WNAM5       6.1/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5
TREW3     640.8/  640.4/  640.1/  639.7/  639.6/  639.4/  639.4
LCRM5     633.3/  632.6/  632.3/  631.6/  631.4/  631.3/  631.3
LACW3       5.9/    5.3/    5.2/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9/    4.8
GENW3     623.9/  622.9/  622.4/  621.4/  621.1/  620.8/  620.7
LNSI4       8.5/    8.2/    8.1/    7.9/    7.8/    7.8/    7.7
LYNW3     616.6/  615.2/  614.8/  613.5/  613.0/  612.5/  612.3
MCGI4       9.2/    8.5/    8.3/    7.9/    7.7/    7.4/    7.3
GTTI4       8.0/    6.7/    6.0/    4.8/    4.4/    4.0/    3.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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