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550
FGUS63 KKRF 232012
ESGLSH

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
242 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:S FK SOLOMON R AT WOODSTON KS 1S
WODK1              12.0  16.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:S FK SOLOMON R AT OSBORNE KS
OSBK1              14.0  20.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK SOLOMON R AT PORTIS KS
PTIK1              15.0  20.0  25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOLOMON R AT BELOIT KS NO.2
BLTK1              20.0  25.0  30.0    12    9   11    7    5   <5
:SOLOMON R AT GLASCO KS 1S
GLAK1              22.0  25.0  34.0    12    9   11    8   <5   <5
:SOLOMON R AT MINNEAPOLIS KS
MPSK1              26.0  30.0  38.0    10    6    6   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT BARNARD KS
BRNK1              21.0  23.3  24.9    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT ADA KS 3ESE
ADAK1              18.0  19.0  24.0    <5    8   <5    7   <5   <5
:SOLOMON R AT NILES KS
NLSK1              24.0  28.0  34.0    12    9   11    7   <5   <5
:SALINE R AT LINCOLN KS 1SE
LINK1              30.0  36.0  38.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALINE R AT TESCOTT KS
TSCK1              25.0  29.0  32.0     8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT LINDSBORG KS
LNSK1              21.0  29.0  33.9    11   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT MENTOR KS 4N
MTRK1              20.0  24.0  28.0     9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MULBERRY CR AT SALINA KS 3W
SLNK1              24.0  26.0  27.4    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT NEW CAMBRIA KS 1SE
NCMK1              27.0  30.0  33.1     9   <5    7   <5   <5   <5
:GYPSUM CR AT GYPSUM KS 4S
GYSK1              15.0  19.0  22.0     6    9   <5    5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ABILENE KS
ABIK1              27.0  30.0  33.0    12    7    8   <5   <5   <5
:MUD CR AT ABILENE KS 1NW
ALEK1              15.0  27.0  33.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ENTERPRISE KS
ENTK1              26.0  27.0  40.0    12    8   12    7   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231442/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:S FK SOLOMON R
WODK1       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    4.2/    5.6/    6.1
OSBK1       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    4.4/    7.3/    8.2

:N FK SOLOMON R
PTIK1       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.9/    5.0/    6.4

:SOLOMON R
BLTK1       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.2/    5.5/   25.8/   30.1
GLAK1       4.2/    4.2/    4.3/    4.6/    7.7/   29.0/   32.3
MPSK1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.6/    5.2/   25.6/   30.5

:SALT CR
BRNK1       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    4.4/    7.2/    9.9
ADAK1       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.7/    5.8/    9.3/   10.7

:SOLOMON R
NLSK1       3.7/    3.7/    3.9/    5.2/   11.6/   29.6/   30.1

:SALINE R
LINK1      10.4/   10.4/   10.4/   10.4/   12.1/   20.1/   21.4
TSCK1       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.5/    7.3/   22.2/   28.2

:SMOKY HILL R
LNSK1       6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    7.7/   10.2/   22.6/   27.9
MTRK1       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.0/    6.9/   19.0/   23.0

:MULBERRY CR
SLNK1       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    3.3/    6.9/    9.6/   19.1

:SMOKY HILL R
NCMK1       7.2/    7.9/   12.1/   16.4/   21.9/   26.2/   32.7

:GYPSUM CR
GYSK1       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.8/    6.6/    9.5/   17.2

:SMOKY HILL R
ABIK1       8.1/    9.0/   12.4/   14.6/   16.9/   29.6/   30.4

:MUD CR
ALEK1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    2.6/    4.3/    6.3/   12.1

:SMOKY HILL R
ENTK1       7.2/    7.5/    9.9/   12.1/   14.6/   30.3/   33.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231442/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:S FK SOLOMON R
WODK1       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
OSBK1       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:N FK SOLOMON R
PTIK1       3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5

:SOLOMON R
BLTK1       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9
GLAK1       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1
MPSK1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2

:SALT CR
BRNK1       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8
ADAK1       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:SOLOMON R
NLSK1       3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4

:SALINE R
LINK1      10.4/   10.4/   10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.3
TSCK1       4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2

:SMOKY HILL R
LNSK1       6.8/    6.3/    6.1/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4
MTRK1       4.6/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1

:MULBERRY CR
SLNK1       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3

:SMOKY HILL R
NCMK1       5.4/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0

:GYPSUM CR
GYSK1       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0

:SMOKY HILL R
ABIK1       5.7/    5.7/    5.2/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0

:MUD CR
ALEK1       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5

:SMOKY HILL R
ENTK1       6.2/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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