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081
FGUS63 KKRF 261614
ESGLDT

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BAD R AT MIDLAND SD
MIDS2              21.0  24.0  25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BAD R AT FT PIERRE SD 3S
FTPS2              21.0  25.0  27.0    <5    7   <5    5   <5   <5
:WHITE R AT KADOKA SD 6S
KDKS2              13.0  15.0  19.0     5    6   <5    5   <5   <5
:WHITE R AT WHITE RIVER SD 11N
WHRS2              14.0  15.0  17.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WHITE R AT OACOMA SD 9SW
OACS2              15.0  20.0  25.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NIOBRARA R AT SPARKS NE 7SW
SPKN1               6.0  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NIOBRARA R AT VERDEL NE 6S
VRDN1               7.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PONCA CR AT VERDEL NE 1E
VERN1              12.0  15.0  17.0     5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0830 Z DH12 /DC1408261113/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:BAD R
MIDS2       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    3.1/    9.3/   13.1/   15.8
FTPS2       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    3.0/    8.7/   12.0/   15.6

:WHITE R
KDKS2       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    4.1/    9.8/   10.4/   13.0
WHRS2       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.4/   12.0/   13.3/   14.4
OACS2       8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    9.0/   13.3/   14.7/   15.1

:NIOBRARA R
SPKN1       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    3.3/    3.5/    3.7
VRDN1       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.2/    5.0/    5.3

:PONCA CR
VERN1       5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    7.0/    8.9/   10.6/   11.9

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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