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330
FGUS63 KMSR 221519
ESGKSJ

KALAMAZOO AND ST. JOSEPH RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1018 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Battle Creek
BCRM4             4.0    5.0    6.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kalamazoo River
MARM4             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
BTCM4             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CMSM4             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RCMM4            17.0   19.0   21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St Joseph River
BURM4             6.5    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
TRVM4             7.0    9.0   11.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
MOTM4             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Branch Elkhart River
CPEI3             6.0    7.0    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St Joseph River
NILM4            11.0   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elkhart River
GSHI3             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St Joseph River
EKMI3            24.0   25.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SBNI3             5.5    8.0    9.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Portage River
VCKM4             5.0    7.0    8.0    21    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407211518/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Battle Creek
BCRM4       1.0/    1.1/    1.4/    1.6/    1.9/    2.2/    2.8
:Kalamazoo River
MARM4       4.6/    4.8/    5.3/    5.6/    6.0/    7.1/   10.0
BTCM4       3.5/    3.6/    3.9/    4.4/    4.9/    6.3/    7.5
CMSM4       4.4/    4.5/    4.8/    5.3/    5.9/    8.0/    9.1
RCMM4      11.3/   11.4/   12.0/   12.9/   14.0/   15.1/   15.7
:St Joseph River
BURM4       3.5/    3.5/    3.6/    4.0/    4.6/    5.1/    6.0
TRVM4       3.4/    3.4/    3.7/    4.5/    5.3/    6.5/    7.7
MOTM4       3.1/    3.1/    3.6/    4.1/    4.8/    6.2/    7.0
:North Branch Elkhart River
CPEI3       3.4/    3.5/    3.7/    4.0/    4.5/    4.8/    5.8
:St Joseph River
NILM4       5.0/    5.0/    5.5/    6.4/    7.2/    9.6/   12.3
:Elkhart River
GSHI3       2.4/    2.5/    2.7/    3.2/    4.3/    5.5/    6.8
:St Joseph River
EKMI3      18.8/   18.9/   19.5/   20.1/   20.7/   22.5/   24.8
SBNI3       0.2/    0.3/    0.7/    1.4/    2.3/    4.5/    7.7
:Portage River
VCKM4       4.0/    4.0/    4.2/    4.7/    5.0/    5.1/    5.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407211518/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Battle Creek
BCRM4       0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.8/    0.8/    0.8
:Kalamazoo River
MARM4       4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
BTCM4       3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
CMSM4       4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9
RCMM4      10.5/   10.4/   10.3/   10.1/    9.9/    9.7/    9.6
:St Joseph River
BURM4       3.4/    3.2/    3.1/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9
TRVM4       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    2.8/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4
MOTM4       2.8/    2.8/    2.6/    2.5/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1
:North Branch Elkhart River
CPEI3       3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9
:St Joseph River
NILM4       4.5/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7
:Elkhart River
GSHI3       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:St Joseph River
EKMI3      18.5/   18.5/   18.3/   18.1/   18.0/   17.9/   17.8
SBNI3      -0.1/   -0.1/   -0.3/   -0.4/   -0.6/   -0.6/   -0.7
:Portage River
VCKM4       3.8/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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