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173
FGUS63 KMSR 211221
ESGKDF

KANKAKEE..DES PLAINES..FOX RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
720 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Kankakee River
DAVI3            10.0   12.0   13.0    40   28    6   <5   <5   <5
:Yellow River
PYMI3            13.0   14.0   15.0    20   14   12    9    6   <5
KNXI3            10.0   12.0   13.0    14   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kankakee River
DBRI3            10.0   12.0   13.0    28   17    9    6   <5   <5
KTSI3            11.0   13.0   14.0    31   17    9    7   <5   <5
SLBI3             9.0   11.0   12.5    70   54   35   20   18   10
MOMI2             5.0    6.5    9.0    25   17   12    6    6   <5
:Iroquois River
RZLI3            12.0   14.0   15.0    31   21   10    7    9   <5
FSMI3            18.0   22.0   24.0    25   15    6   <5   <5   <5
IRQI2            18.0   24.0   25.0    57   31   14    6   <5   <5
:Sugar Creek
MILI2            18.0   22.0   26.0    51   31   14   10   <5   <5
:Iroquois River
CHBI2            16.0   18.0   20.0    21    9   14    6   <5   <5
:Kankakee River
WLMI2             6.5    8.0   10.0    20   14   10   <5   <5   <5
:Des Plaines River
RUSI2             7.0    9.0   10.0    14   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
GUNI2             7.0    9.0   11.0     9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
LDRI2            12.5   14.0   15.5     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DSPI2             5.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RVRI2             7.0    8.0    9.0    14   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
LEMI2            10.0   11.0   12.0    29   20   14    9   <5   <5
:West Branch Du Page River
WRNI2            11.5   14.5   17.5    12   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Branch Du Page River
BOLI2            19.5   21.0   23.0    28   25    6    7   <5   <5
:Du Page River
SORI2             6.5    8.0   10.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mazon River
COLI2            12.0   14.0   17.0    20   10    6   <5   <5   <5
:Fox River
BRGW3            11.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NMSW3            10.0   13.0   14.0    34   35   <5    7   <5   <5
AFBI2             9.5   10.5   12.0    12   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
MNGI2            13.0   14.0   15.0    12    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
DAYI2            12.0   14.0   24.0    12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Vermilion River
PNTI2            14.0   15.0   18.0    18    7   15    7    6   <5
LNRI2            16.0   21.0   26.0    32   20   14    9   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201220/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Kankakee River
DAVI3       8.1/    8.3/    9.0/    9.8/   10.6/   11.8/   12.3
:Yellow River
PYMI3       6.7/    7.2/    7.9/    9.8/   12.6/   14.3/   15.8
KNXI3       6.3/    6.5/    6.9/    7.8/    8.8/   10.2/   11.7
:Kankakee River
DBRI3       6.5/    6.9/    7.6/    9.0/   10.2/   11.9/   12.9
KTSI3       7.5/    7.9/    8.7/   10.2/   11.3/   13.0/   14.1
SLBI3       7.8/    8.0/    8.9/   10.3/   11.7/   13.5/   14.7
MOMI2       2.7/    3.1/    3.4/    4.1/    5.2/    8.3/    9.4
:Iroquois River
RZLI3       6.7/    7.8/    9.1/   11.2/   13.0/   14.7/   19.1
FSMI3      10.6/   11.8/   13.3/   16.4/   18.3/   20.2/   22.3
IRQI2      11.3/   11.9/   14.6/   18.9/   22.2/   24.5/   25.3
:Sugar Creek
MILI2       8.5/   11.3/   15.5/   18.2/   19.7/   23.8/   25.3
:Iroquois River
CHBI2       6.3/    7.3/    9.7/   12.4/   15.1/   18.3/   19.0
:Kankakee River
WLMI2       2.8/    3.1/    3.7/    4.7/    6.1/    8.4/   10.2
:Des Plaines River
RUSI2       3.1/    3.6/    4.5/    5.7/    6.4/    7.1/    7.5
GUNI2       2.2/    2.5/    3.0/    4.8/    5.7/    7.0/    7.4
LDRI2       7.1/    7.4/    8.1/    9.8/   10.8/   12.2/   12.7
DSPI2      -1.4/   -0.7/    0.3/    2.0/    3.4/    4.5/    5.2
RVRI2       2.6/    3.4/    4.3/    5.7/    6.4/    7.6/    8.1
LEMI2       6.0/    6.8/    7.8/    9.3/   10.3/   11.5/   12.1
:West Branch Du Page River
WRNI2       8.2/    8.6/    9.5/   10.3/   11.1/   11.7/   12.4
:East Branch Du Page River
BOLI2      15.7/   16.1/   17.6/   18.6/   19.8/   20.6/   21.4
:Du Page River
SORI2       3.1/    3.2/    3.8/    4.6/    5.4/    6.1/    7.0
:Mazon River
COLI2       5.8/    6.4/    7.8/    9.6/   11.5/   13.0/   15.4
:Fox River
BRGW3       6.3/    6.9/    7.3/    8.5/    9.1/   10.0/   10.2
NMSW3       5.9/    6.6/    7.4/    9.6/   10.4/   12.0/   12.5
AFBI2       5.6/    6.1/    6.8/    8.2/    8.7/    9.7/   10.0
MNGI2      11.6/   11.7/   12.0/   12.4/   12.9/   13.2/   13.4
DAYI2       6.5/    6.9/    8.0/    9.8/   11.5/   12.4/   13.8
:Vermilion River
PNTI2       4.5/    5.5/    7.3/   10.0/   12.9/   16.4/   18.7
LNRI2       6.2/    8.0/   10.6/   12.9/   17.6/   23.4/   25.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201220/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Kankakee River
DAVI3       7.0/    6.9/    6.8/    6.7/    6.6/    6.5/    6.4
:Yellow River
PYMI3       4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1
KNXI3       5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0
:Kankakee River
DBRI3       4.5/    4.4/    4.2/    4.0/    3.9/    3.7/    3.6
KTSI3       5.5/    5.3/    5.2/    4.9/    4.8/    4.6/    4.5
SLBI3       6.1/    6.0/    5.8/    5.6/    5.4/    5.2/    5.0
MOMI2       2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7
:Iroquois River
RZLI3       4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0/    3.8
FSMI3       7.7/    7.5/    7.2/    6.8/    6.2/    5.9/    5.6
IRQI2       7.2/    6.9/    6.6/    6.2/    5.8/    5.4/    5.1
:Sugar Creek
MILI2       4.0/    4.0/    3.8/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
:Iroquois River
CHBI2       4.4/    4.3/    4.1/    3.8/    3.5/    3.3/    3.2
:Kankakee River
WLMI2       2.2/    2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.6/    1.6
:Des Plaines River
RUSI2       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8
GUNI2       1.8/    1.8/    1.7/    1.5/    1.4/    1.3/    1.2
DSPI2      -1.7/   -1.7/   -1.9/   -2.1/   -2.3/   -2.3/   -2.5
LDRI2       6.8/    6.8/    6.7/    6.4/    6.3/    6.3/    6.1
RVRI2       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.5
LEMI2       5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    4.7
:West Branch Du Page River
WRNI2       7.3/    7.3/    7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.1
:East Branch Du Page River
BOLI2      14.5/   14.4/   14.4/   14.3/   14.3/   14.2/   14.2
:Du Page River
SORI2       2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
:Mazon River
COLI2       2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7
:Fox River
BRGW3       6.0/    5.8/    5.7/    5.5/    5.4/    5.2/    5.0
NMSW3       5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3/    5.2
AFBI2       5.1/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.5/    4.3/    4.2
MNGI2      11.2/   11.1/   11.1/   11.1/   11.0/   10.9/   10.9
DAYI2       5.7/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0
:Vermilion River
PNTI2       3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0
LNRI2       4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$





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