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811
FGUS63 KKRF 232005
ESGJAM

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
235 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:JAMES R AT GRACE CITY ND 3W
GCEN8              12.0  14.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PIPESTEM CR AT PINGREE ND 3W
PGEN8              11.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT LA MOURE ND
LAMN8              14.0  16.0  18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELM R AT WESTPORT SD 1N
WESS2              14.0  16.0  19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT COLUMBIA SD 1S
CMBS2              13.0  16.0  18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT STRATFORD SD 7SW
SFDS2              14.0  17.0  18.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT ASHTON SD
ATNS2              13.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TURTLE CR AT REDFIELD SD
ID8S2               7.0  10.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT REDFIELD SD 3NE
RFDS2              20.0  22.0  24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT HURON SD
HURS2              11.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT FORESTBURG SD 4SE
FORS2              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT MITCHELL SD 4SE
JRMS2              17.0  20.0  22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FIRESTEEL CR AT MOUNT VERNON SD 5N
MTVS2               8.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT SCOTLAND SD 5NE
SCOS2              13.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT YANKTON SD
YNNS2              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:W FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 3WNW
PKRS2               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:E FK VERMILLION AT PARKER SD 4NE
VRPS2              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT DAVIS SD 2SE
DVSS2              11.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT WAKONDA SD 7ESE
WKAS2              14.0  15.5  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT VERMILLION SD 3N
VERS2              21.0  22.0  30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231435/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:JAMES R
GCEN8       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.1

:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5

:JAMES R
LAMN8       7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.3

:ELM R
WESS2       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    4.5/    4.8/    4.9

:JAMES R
CMBS2       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.3
SFDS2       7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.5/    7.5/    7.6
ATNS2       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1

:TURTLE CR
ID8S2       3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    3.2/    3.3/    3.4/    3.5

:JAMES R
RFDS2       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.9
HURS2       9.3/    9.3/    9.3/    9.3/    9.3/    9.3/    9.4
FORS2       5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1
JRMS2      10.8/   10.8/   10.8/   10.8/   10.8/   10.8/   10.8

:FIRESTEEL CR
MTVS2       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.7

:JAMES R
SCOS2       5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1
YNNS2       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1

:W FK VERMILLION R
PKRS2       0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.8/    1.4

:E FK VERMILLION
VRPS2       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    4.2/    4.5

:VERMILLION R
DVSS2       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    3.8/    4.3
WKAS2       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    4.9/    5.4
VERS2       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    4.5/    5.1
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1027 Z DH12 /DC1410231435/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:JAMES R
GCEN8       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0

:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5

:JAMES R
LAMN8       7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0

:ELM R
WESS2       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:JAMES R
CMBS2       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0
SFDS2       6.4/    6.4/    6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.3
ATNS2       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:TURTLE CR
ID8S2       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1

:JAMES R
RFDS2       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5
HURS2       9.2/    9.2/    9.2/    9.2/    9.2/    9.2/    9.2
FORS2       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0
JRMS2      10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2

:FIRESTEEL CR
MTVS2       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2

:JAMES R
SCOS2       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
YNNS2       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0

:W FK VERMILLION R
PKRS2       0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4

:E FK VERMILLION
VRPS2       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4

:VERMILLION R
DVSS2       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4
WKAS2       3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
VERS2       2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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