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071
FGUS63 KKRF 261509
ESGELK

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1006 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  8/31/2014 - 11/29/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ELKHORN R AT EWING NE 1N
EWIN1               9.0  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT NELIGH NE #2
NLIN1              11.0  12.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT NORFOLK NE 2SSW
NFKN1              12.0  13.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK ELKHORN R AT PIERCE NE 2SE
PRCN1              12.0  14.0  16.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT PILGER NE
PLGN1              12.0  14.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT WEST POINT NE 1W
WPNN1              12.0  16.0  18.7    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT WINSLOW NE 2E
WLON1              18.0  20.0  24.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LOGAN CR AT UEHLING NE 2SW
UEHN1              18.0  19.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MAPLE CR AT NICKERSON NE 4NW
NKRN1              11.5  13.0  17.0     7    7    6    6   <5   <5
:ELKHORN R AT WATERLOO NE
WTRN1              17.0  18.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT BRADY NE CH 1
BDYN1               7.5   9.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R NO CH AT COZAD NE 2S
COZN1               6.5   8.0  10.0    <5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT OVERTON NE 3W
OVTN1               8.0  12.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT KEARNEY NE 3S
KEAN1               6.0   8.0   9.0     8    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT GRAND ISLAND NE 5SE
GRIN1               6.5   7.0   7.5     9   <5    6   <5    5   <5
:WOOD R AT RIVERDALE NE 2NW
RIVN1              11.0  15.0  20.0    14    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WOOD R AT GIBBON NE 3ENE
GBBN1              15.0  16.0  16.5    15    6   14   <5   10   <5
:WOOD R AT ALDA NE 1SW
ALDN1              10.0  11.0  12.2    18   12   15    7   13   <5
:PLATTE R AT DUNCAN NE 2S
DNCN1               8.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHELL CR AT COLUMBUS NE 8NE
CLBN1              20.0  21.0  22.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT NORTH BEND NE
NBDN1               8.0  12.0  15.0     8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT LESHARA NE 1SE
LESN1               8.0  10.0  12.0    11   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT ASHLAND NE 3NE
ASLN1              20.0  22.0  26.0     8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT ROCA NE
ROCN1              19.0  23.0  26.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT LINCOLN NE
LCNN1              20.5  26.5  33.0     8    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT GREENWOOD NE 1WNW
GRNN1              20.0  22.0  26.0    16    6   12    5    6   <5
:WAHOO CR AT ITHACA NE
ITHN1              19.0  22.0  23.0    27    9    5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT ASHLAND NE NO.1
ASDN1              16.0  20.0  23.0    24   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE R AT LOUISVILLE NE
LOUN1               9.0  11.0  12.0    10    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0831 Z DH12 /DC1408261006/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 8/31/2014 - 11/29/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:ELKHORN R
EWIN1       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    4.2/    5.0/    5.6
NLIN1       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    4.5/    5.7/    6.9/    7.2
NFKN1       3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.6/    4.4/    5.5/    5.7

:N FK ELKHORN R
PRCN1       4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    6.0/   10.8/   12.2

:ELKHORN R
PLGN1       8.5/    8.5/    8.5/    8.5/    9.1/    9.8/   10.4
WPNN1       8.3/    8.3/    8.3/    8.3/    9.4/   11.1/   11.7
WLON1      11.4/   11.4/   11.4/   11.8/   13.5/   16.1/   19.0

:LOGAN CR
UEHN1       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    7.0/    9.9/   15.4/   16.6

:MAPLE CR
NKRN1       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    5.7/    7.2/   10.1/   14.7

:ELKHORN R
WTRN1       6.7/    6.7/    6.7/    6.9/    8.9/   14.2/   15.6

:PLATTE R
BDYN1       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.8/    5.3/    5.9

:PLATTE R NO CH
COZN1       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.9/    5.4/    6.2

:PLATTE R
OVTN1       3.8/    3.8/    3.9/    3.9/    4.4/    4.9/    5.4
KEAN1       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.6/    5.5/    6.2
GRIN1       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.9/    6.2/    7.5

:WOOD R
RIVN1       5.4/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4/    7.0/   12.1/   14.0
GBBN1      10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   16.6/   18.1
ALDN1       9.1/    9.1/    9.1/    9.1/    9.1/   12.5/   13.1

:PLATTE R
DNCN1       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.0/    6.1/    7.2

:SHELL CR
CLBN1       7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.3/   12.2/   18.2/   19.8

:PLATTE R
NBDN1       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.2/    7.8/    8.3
LESN1       6.6/    6.6/    6.6/    6.6/    6.7/    8.2/    9.1
ASLN1      18.2/   18.2/   18.2/   18.2/   18.2/   19.6/   20.3

:SALT CR
ROCN1       1.6/    1.6/    1.8/    2.4/    4.5/   11.9/   16.6
LCNN1       3.4/    3.4/    3.6/    5.2/   11.6/   18.6/   22.2
GRNN1       4.7/    4.7/    4.8/    6.3/   14.8/   23.2/   27.0

:WAHOO CR
ITHN1       6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    9.3/   20.8/   21.8/   22.0

:SALT CR
ASDN1       9.0/    9.0/    9.0/    9.9/   15.0/   18.5/   19.4

:PLATTE R
LOUN1       6.6/    6.6/    6.6/    6.6/    7.1/    9.0/    9.5

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$





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