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738 FGUS65 KSTR 072022 ESGAZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH JANUARY 7, 2015 FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ARIZONA The flood potential for Arizona Rivers and streams is not high at this time. Because the nature of flooding in Arizona is associated with rainfall events versus snow melt it`s difficult to determine with much certainty the flood threat over a season. Existing streamflow, soil, and snowpack conditions are analyzed for their potential contribution to streamflow levels during future rainfall events. Seasonal October-December precipitation was 80 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 75 percent of average for the Gila Basin and 85 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. December precipitation was 140 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 85 percent in the Gila River Basin, and 160 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin. January 1st snow water equivalent was near 60 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 35 percent of average in the upper Gila, and 50 percent of average in the Little Colorado River Basin. Modeled soil moisture states vary with most areas below average at this time. However, the January through May runoff volumes are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events. Given the presence of weak ENSO El Nino climate conditions, there is a chance for above average rainfall over the next few months. The latest CPC climate forecasts suggest wetter than average precipitation conditions. CBRFC NNNN $$