217
FGUS72 KTAE 201847
ESFTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-212100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 /245 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013/

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS
ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN RECESSION AT THIS TIME BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BASE LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL BEGINS LATE THIS WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BECAUSE
THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND PULL IN A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD
EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE SECOND RAINFALL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD EASILY MEET OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM
THE FIRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........5 TO 8 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........5 TO 8 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE
THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

IMPACTS ON RIVERS...

SHOULD THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE
FOLLOWING BASINS ARE WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL BETWEEN GENEVA AND
BRUCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

CHIPOLA...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL AT MARIANNA AND ALTHA INTO
NEXT WEEK.

APALACHICOLA...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

FLINT...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT ALBANY AND AN INCREASED FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM NEWTON TO LAKE SEMINOLE.

WITHLACHOOCHEE...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT VALDOSTA.

OTHER VULNERABLE STREAMS INCLUDE THE MUCKALEE CREEK AND
KINCHAFOONEE NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS THE SPRING CREEK IN MILLER
COUNTY AND THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR HAHIRA.

AS WITH ANY HYDROLOGIC RIVER PREDICTION...RISES AND EVENTUAL CRESTS
ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS AND ENTERS THE
BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

$$

EVANS/GODSEY