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359
FGUS73 KSGF 141220
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-151200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  32   41   24   27   <5   <5
:Little Osage
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  45   53   22   26   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  24   34    8   14    7    9
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  48   51   24   26    6   10
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  10   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  17   19    7   10   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  15   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  16   31   <5   11   <5    5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              14.0   15.0   16.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :   9   22   <5   12   <5   <5
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring         9.0   12.0   16.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Jacks Fork River
Eminence            12.0   15.0   20.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:James River
Galena              15.0   25.0   31.0 :  16   21  <20  <20  <20  <20
:North Fork of White River
Tecumseh            20.0   25.0   30.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                2.7    2.9    4.8   12.5   24.3   28.5   29.2
:Little Osage
Horton               24.6   24.7   27.0   39.6   44.0   47.0   48.4
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            6.8    7.1   11.6   28.0   37.9   41.5   43.7
Nevada                2.2    2.3    4.6   19.0   25.1   30.0   32.6
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            0.6    0.6    1.4    2.7    6.6   15.2   19.6
Jerome                1.2    1.2    1.9    3.3    8.2   14.8   17.5
:Spring River
Carthage              2.8    2.9    3.3    4.3    7.4   12.4   15.3
Waco                  1.6    1.9    3.6    7.0   12.2   22.7   25.0
Baxter Springs        3.0    3.1    3.8    5.5    9.2   18.0   19.7
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.0    2.0    2.2    3.3    5.9   10.6   13.2
:Elk River
Tiff City             3.0    3.1    4.0    5.9    9.5   14.6   20.0
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring          2.6    3.1    3.8    4.2    4.5    4.7    5.1
:Jacks Fork River
Eminence              1.8    2.3    3.0    3.3    3.7    4.0    4.6
:James River
Galena                3.1    4.1    4.9    6.0    7.4    9.6   12.1
:North Fork of White River
Tecumseh              2.5    2.7    3.2    3.6    3.9    4.6    5.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued in late September.

$$

Terry








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