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637
FGUS71 KRLX 231330
ESFRLX

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
830 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-VAC027-
051-WVC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-033-035-039-041-043-
045-047-053-059-067-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-
101-105-107-109-240130-
830 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NORMAL...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE CONSIDERED NORMAL
FOR THE STREAMS IN THE CHARLESTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). A
NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL GENERALLY MEANS MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THIS AREA INCLUDES EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST
OHIO...BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

FOR THE LONG RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90 DAY RIVER OUTLOOK IN THE
LEFT HAND COLUMN. CLICK ON FLOOD CHANCE VS NORMAL TO SEE THE RISK OF
FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDRO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING
FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...REALIZING THAT ACTUAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.


PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL.


SOIL CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH ARE GENERALLY
MOIST THIS TIME OF YEAR.


SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
A TRACE TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER RIDGES OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV. WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BETWEEN A TRACE
AND 0.5 INCHES.


RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE AT OR NEAR NORMAL POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...
SOME ICE WAS NOTED ON SOME OF THE HEADWATER STREAMS AND RIVERS.


STREAM FLOWS...
STREAM FLOWS ARE NORMAL ACROSS THE HSA.


THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A EL NINO PATTERN THIS EARLY WINTER FOR THE
CHARLESTON HSA.  THE STORM TRACKS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...THEN CURVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR OUT INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  WITHOUT PHASING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS...SIGNIFICANT STORM EVENTS WILL NOT
DEVELOP OR AFFECT THE HSA. AS A RESULT...STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL WITH ISOLATED OCCASIONAL MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG
STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE CHARLESTON HSA.

RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

$$







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