653
FGUS71 KRLX 041936
ESFRLX

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 PM EDT THU APR 4 2013

KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-VAC027-
051-WVC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-033-035-039-041-043-
045-047-053-059-067-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-
101-105-107-109-050745-
336 PM EDT THU APR 4 2013

...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE CONSIDERED NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE STREAMS IN THE CHARLESTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
(HSA). NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. THIS AREA INCLUDES EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST
OHIO...BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90-DAYS...REFER
TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK IN
THE LEFT HAND COLUMN. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS. NORMAL TO SEE THE
RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDRO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING
FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...REALIZING THAT ACTUAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DURING THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE:

WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK...THE WETNESS OF THE
SOILS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL...HIGH STREAMFLOWS...AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE RIVERS.

PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION WAS NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE HSA DURING THIS WINTER.


SOIL CONDITIONS...
SOILS ARE WET OR MOIST. THIS CAN CAUSE EFFICIENT RUNOFF FROM ANY
FUTURE RAIN.

SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
A SNOW PACK OF UP TO 12 INCHES WAS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS WERE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE...WITH 1 TO
3 INCHES IN THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK.

RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...
HEADWATER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE NO ICE.


RIVER FLOWS...
RIVER FLOWS HAVE AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL ON ALL RIVERS.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE HSA.  THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.


$$

SIKORA