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FGUS75 KRIW 061420
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WYC003-013-017-019-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-601-070220-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
720 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RIVERTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) WHICH
ENCOMPASSES 10 COUNTIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS
OUTLOOK COVERS THE MAJOR TRIBUTARIES TO THE YELLOWSTONE...GREEN...
AND SNAKE RIVER BASINS.

...MINIMAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MAJOR WATERSHEDS IN
WYOMING...

...ABOVE AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...

...MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS RUNOFF
SEASON ACROSS HEADWATER STREAMS AND CREEKS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...

WYOMING GENERALLY DOES NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT RUNOFF
UNTIL EARLY TO MIDDLE MAY...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT RUNOFF USUALLY
PEAKING AROUND EARLY JUNE.  THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...IT IS WAY
TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE LONG RANGE PREDICTION ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF FLOODING DUE TO MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT RUNOFF.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON VARIOUS DIVERSE HYDROLOGICAL FACTORS SUCH
AS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS (SWES) IN THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK...BASIN
MORPHOLOGY (I.E HOW BASINS HISTORICALLY RESPOND TO SNOWMELT)...EXTENT
OF BURN SCARS FROM 2012 AND 29013 FIRES...AMOUNT OF PINE PARK BEETLE
KILL IN EACH MAJOR WATERSHED...AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF SOIL MOISTURE...
AND LIKELY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS DURING LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 1--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/8/2014 - 9/30/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WIND RIVER
DUBOIS                4.7    4.8    5.0    5.1    5.4    5.7    6.2
RED CREEK             6.5    6.8    7.2    7.7    8.1    8.8    9.1
:NORTH FORK SHOSHONE RIVER
WAPITI                5.9    6.0    6.2    6.8    7.2    7.8    9.5
:YELLOWSTONE RIVER
FISHING BRIDGE        5.9    6.3    6.5    6.8    7.1    7.3    7.4
:LAMAR RIVER
TOWER JUNCTION        7.6    7.8    8.2    8.6    9.4    9.7    9.8

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

OTHER HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR WYOMING CAN BE FOUND AT THE
RIVERTON NOAA HYDROLOGY WEBSITE:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/RIW/?N=SNOWPACK

CURRENT WYOMING SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL GRAPHIC
PLEASE REFER TO:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/RIW/HYDRO/FLOODOUTLOOK.PNG

CURRENT WYOMING WATER SUPPLY GRAPHIC,
PLEASE REFER TO:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/RIW/HYDRO/WATERSUPPLY.PNG

LATEST AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION BY BASIN GRAPHICS,
PLEASE REFER TO:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/RIW/HYDRO/WYOMINGPRECIP.PNG

MONTHLY WYOMING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND GRAPHICS:
PLEAS REFER TO:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/RIW/HYDRO/HYDRO_REPORT.PDF

LATEST WYOMING DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT AND GRAPHICS,
PLEASE REFER TO:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/RIW/?N=DROUGHT

CURRENT AND FORECAST WYOMING STREAMFLOWS AND/OR RIVER STAGES,
PLEASE REFER TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RIW

WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WY/NWIS/RT

$$

JTFAHEY







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