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619
FGUS72 KMFL 061444
ESFMFL

LC011-021-043-051-086-099-070000-
BROWARD-COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-MIAMI-DADE-PALM BEACH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT LAUDERDALE...NAPLES...IMMOKALEE...
MOORE HAVEN...LA BELLE...CLEWISTON...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...MIAMI...WEST PALM BEACH
945 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...

PAST AND EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS DRY
SEASON, THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL. SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2013 (SHORTLY AFTER
THE BEGINNING OF THE DRY SEASON), MOST AREAS HAVE RECORDED BETWEEN
50 TO 75 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD, EXCEPT 25 TO
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
AROUND 100 PERCENT ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SOIL MOISTURE...
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OR SOIL
DRYNESS SHOWS MODERATE DRYNESS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT
SEVERE DRYNESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...
GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WAS AROUND 13.9 FEET WHICH IS AROUND 0.6 FEET BELOW NORMAL OF 14.5
FEET.

RIVER FLOWS...
THE CURRENT LEVEL OF FISHEATING CREEK IS AROUND 1.3 FEET, WHICH IS
AROUND 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OTHERWISE TYPICALLY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MARCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS. THE LATEST CPC
OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF MARCH IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR, ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST CPC THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
CALLS FOR CONTINUED EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR, ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE CURRENT HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FROM THE WINTER SEASON,
CLIMATOLOGICAL-LOW RIVER STAGES OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY SPRING
SEASON AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING UPCOMING SPRING RAINFALL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING IS SOUTH FLORIDA IS NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THIS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE US ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEORLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE
FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC

&&

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