000
FGUS74 KLCH 201447
ESFLCH
LAC001-003-009-019-039-053-055-079-099-101-113-115-TXC199-241-245-
351-361-457-211447-


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG
RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  AHPS
ENABLES THE NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU
NEAR SOUR LAKE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 25 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE SOUR LAKE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 27.2 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
      VALID FOR NOVEMBER 18TH 2009 - FEBRUARY 16TH 2010


 LOCATION     FS(FT)   90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
---------------------------------------------------------------------


NECHES RIVER
 TOWN BLUFF   64       59.7 64.7 65.6 66.6 66.9 67.6 68.3 68.9 70.1
 EVADALE      19       14.0 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.6
 WEISS BLUFF  15       10.8 12.2 13.7 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.1
 BEAUMONT      4        2.7  3.5  4.6  4.7  5.0  5.8  6.1  7.1  8.2
VILLAGE CREEK
 KOUNTZE      17       13.0 14.5 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.7 19.8
PINE ISLAND BAYOU
 SOUR LAKE    25       22.6 24.5 25.2 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.5 29.5

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF
RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LCH (INTERNET
ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$