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FGUS73 KIND 161730
ESFIND
ILC023-033-047-059-101-185-193-INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-
035-045-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-
107-109-119-121-133-135-139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-281800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  4/21/2014 - 7/20/2014

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:White River
Anderson            10.0   15.0   19.0 :  23   26    6    7   <5   <5
Eagle Valley Powe  603.0  607.0  610.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Centerton           12.0   16.0   19.0 :  38   42    7    7   <5   <5
Elliston            18.0   25.0   29.0 :  73   77   21   21   <5   <5
Edwardsport         15.0   22.0   25.0 :  74   79   18   22   <5   <5
Hazleton            16.0   24.0   28.0 :  69   76   19   20    5    6
Indianapolis        16.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Muncie               9.0   12.0   15.0 :  16   14    5    5   <5   <5
Noblesville         14.0   19.0   21.0 :  23   24    7    7   <5   <5
Nora                11.0   16.0   19.0 :  29   33    7    8   <5   <5
Newberry            13.0   19.0   24.0 :  67   72   29   33   <5   <5
Petersburg          16.0   23.5   26.0 :  72   77   19   21   <5    5
Ravenswood           6.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Spencer             14.0   20.0   24.0 :  64   67   18   18   <5   <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus             9.0   14.0   16.0 :  28   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rivervale           20.0   30.0   35.0 :  51   50    9    8   <5   <5
Bedford             20.0   27.0   32.0 :  37   35    9    9   <5   <5
Seymour             12.0   17.0   19.0 :  78   79   19   20   <5   <5
Shoals              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  21   20    9    9   <5   <5
Williams             8.0   14.0   19.0 :  41   40   11    9   <5   <5
:Wabash River
Covington           16.0   24.0   28.0 :  69   81   15   16   <5   <5
Terre Haute         14.0   22.0   28.0 :  84   88   27   25   <5   <5
Hutsonville Legac   16.0   24.0   28.0 :  90   90   33   30   <5   <5
Lafayette           11.0   20.0   25.0 :  71   82   14   12   <5   <5
Mount Carmel        19.0   25.0   32.0 :  67   69   33   32   <5   <5
Montezuma           14.0   24.0   30.0 :  86   90   27   26   <5   <5
Riverton            15.0   22.0   26.0 :  88   87   44   42   14   14
Vincennes           16.0   22.0   28.0 :  67   65   39   35   <5   <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green       15.0   20.0   23.0 :  32   38   18   20    5    5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville       8.0   10.0   14.0 :  18   19   10   11   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon              17.0   27.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville         13.0   15.0   18.0 :  44   43   17   17   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 4/21/2014 - 7/20/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:White River
Anderson              5.5    5.8    6.7    8.2    9.7   12.0   16.3
Eagle Valley Powe     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Centerton             3.5    4.9    7.7   10.4   14.0   15.6   16.5
Elliston             11.0   14.4   17.8   21.3   24.6   26.2   27.2
Edwardsport           9.6   12.1   14.9   18.5   20.9   23.6   24.7
Hazleton              9.1   11.7   15.0   19.4   22.6   26.5   28.3
Indianapolis          5.3    6.2    7.9    9.4   11.0   13.7   15.5
Muncie                5.2    5.5    6.2    6.9    7.9    9.9   12.4
Noblesville           6.2    7.2    9.0   11.7   13.4   17.8   20.7
Nora                  4.6    5.7    7.4    9.1   11.4   15.2   16.9
Newberry              6.9    9.3   11.7   16.1   19.7   22.2   23.2
Petersburg            9.4   12.3   15.6   19.3   22.1   24.8   25.9
Ravenswood            0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Spencer               7.4    9.1   12.6   16.1   19.0   21.2   22.3
:East Fork White River
Columbus              2.2    2.7    3.5    5.7    9.5   13.0   13.7
Rivervale            11.9   12.4   16.1   20.2   24.1   29.3   33.2
Bedford              10.4   10.8   15.3   18.4   21.6   26.7   30.2
Seymour               8.8    9.3   12.8   15.0   16.5   17.9   18.3
Shoals                6.4    6.8    9.6   12.4   18.4   24.8   27.9
Williams              3.8    4.1    5.8    7.3    9.3   14.3   16.7
:Wabash River
Covington            12.2   13.2   15.0   19.4   22.6   24.9   26.2
Terre Haute          10.2   12.8   15.9   19.3   22.3   23.3   24.6
Hutsonville Legac    14.6   16.2   18.1   20.8   23.3   24.9   25.9
Lafayette             7.4    8.1   10.4   14.1   17.7   21.2   21.8
Mount Carmel         10.8   13.6   17.6   22.0   26.6   29.1   30.9
Montezuma            11.2   12.9   17.3   21.0   24.3   25.5   26.5
Riverton             12.6   14.8   16.7   19.4   22.5   24.6   26.0
Vincennes            10.6   12.5   14.9   18.3   22.1   25.4   26.3
:Eel River
Bowling Green         7.6    9.4   11.2   13.7   18.5   21.8   23.1
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville        3.0    3.5    4.0    4.7    6.3   10.2   11.7
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon                5.5    5.8    6.5    7.9   10.9   14.7   15.0
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville           6.7    7.3    8.1   10.3   13.3   16.8   17.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued next Wednesday.

$$








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