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268
FGUS74 KHGX 211921
ESFHGX
220721-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
221 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90
DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR BOLING HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 18
FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE BOLING FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
11.1 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


             CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                       VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 EAST BERNARD 17.0   8.4 10.7 12.5 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.9 18.6 19.7
 BOLING       18.0   4.0  5.0  6.3  8.3 11.1 13.4 18.7 24.1 28.6
 SWEENY       16.0  11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 12.0 15.5 19.2


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).


LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.


$$





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