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523
FGUS73 KGLD 231457
ESFGLD
NEC057-087-145-KSC039-063-109-137-153-241200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
855 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  9/27/2014 - 12/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:SOUTH FORK REPUBLICAN RIVER
BENKELMAN 2SSW       9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ARIKAREE RIVER
HAIGLER             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
BENKELMAN 1SW        7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRATTON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FRENCHMAN CREEK
CULBERTSON           8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DRIFTWOOD CREEK
MCCOOK 4SW          17.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
MCCOOK 1SE           9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
LUDELL               9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
CEDAR BLUFFS        16.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAPPA CREEK
OBERLIN 1SW         11.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
NORCATUR 15NE       17.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
OAKLEY               9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:HACKBERRY CREEK
GOVE                19.0   21.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
LENORA              10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 9/27/2014 - 12/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SOUTH FORK REPUBLICAN RIVER
BENKELMAN 2SSW        0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.8    1.2
:ARIKAREE RIVER
HAIGLER               4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    5.0    5.2
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
BENKELMAN 1SW         3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.8
STRATTON              7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.5
:FRENCHMAN CREEK
CULBERTSON            3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.7    4.2    4.8
:DRIFTWOOD CREEK
MCCOOK 4SW            2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.9    5.9    9.5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
MCCOOK 1SE            4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.3    4.7    5.3
:BEAVER CREEK
LUDELL                3.6    3.7    3.9    3.9    3.9    4.6    6.9
CEDAR BLUFFS          2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    3.6    7.0
:SAPPA CREEK
OBERLIN 1SW           7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    7.9    9.7
NORCATUR 15NE         4.8    4.8    4.9    5.0    5.1    6.6    9.1
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
OAKLEY                5.0    5.0    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.9    6.9
:HACKBERRY CREEK
GOVE                  6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3    6.7    8.1
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
LENORA                3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    4.0

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GLD FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN APPROXIMATELY 30 DAYS.

$$




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