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TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE BRAZOS RIVER NEAR SOUTH BEND HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE SOUTH
BEND FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
8.7 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                VALID 9/17/2014 0 12/17/2014

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
BIG SANDY CREEK
 BRECKENRIDGE  24.0  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9  1.8  2.8  3.2  4.3 11.1
UPPER BRAZOS RIVER
 SOUTH BEND    21.0  4.4  4.9  5.9  7.5  8.7 10.4 14.3 19.8 24.8
 PALO PINTO    18.0  1.6  1.6  1.6  1.8  2.1  2.4  2.8  3.2  9.8
 DENNIS        25.0  1.2  1.2  1.4  1.7  2.2  3.6  4.7  5.6 14.8
 GLEN ROSE     29.0  4.7  4.7  4.7  4.7  4.8  5.1  5.3  6.7 14.4
 AQUILLA       29.0  6.9  6.9  6.9  6.9  6.9  6.9  7.7  7.7  8.6
PALUXY RIVER
 GLEN ROSE     22.0  2.2  2.5  2.6  3.0  3.2  3.4  3.8  4.6  5.0
NOLAN RIVER
 BLUM          24.0  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.6  1.7  1.8  2.1  2.7  3.9
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
 WACO          27.0  2.8  2.8  2.8  2.8  2.8  3.3  4.6  4.8  5.8
 HIGHBANK      35.0  2.7  2.7  2.7  2.9  3.5  4.0  4.6  5.4  8.3
NORTH BOSQUE RIVER
 HICO          24.0  4.4  5.2  5.4  5.8  6.3  7.1  7.5  8.0  9.2
 CLIFTON       23.0  0.7  1.3  1.9  2.2  2.7  3.2  3.6  3.8  4.7
 VALLEY MILLS  36.0  4.4  5.0  5.7  6.2  6.5  7.1  7.3  8.1  8.8
HOG CREEK
 CRAWFORD      14.0  1.4  1.6  2.0  2.4  2.6  2.8  3.0  3.9  5.5
MIDDLE BOSQUE RIVER
 MCGREGOR      20.0  3.0  3.3  3.3  3.6  3.6  3.8  4.0  4.5  5.4
SABANA RIVER
 DELEON        19.0  2.3  2.5  3.0  4.3  5.3  8.9 10.5 12.9 16.7
LEON RIVER
 DELEON        12.0  1.7  1.7  2.0  2.1  2.2  2.5  2.8  3.6  4.4
 HAMILTON      26.0  5.1  5.1  5.6  5.8  6.4  6.8  7.7  8.6 12.4
 GATESVILLE    22.0  2.6  2.6  3.0  3.3  3.8  4.1  4.9  6.7  7.7
 BELTON        14.0  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8
COWHOUSE CREEK
 PIDCOKE       20.0  3.1  3.5  4.0  5.0  5.3  5.6  6.9  8.4  9.4
LAMPASAS RIVER
 KEMPNER       18.0  1.3  2.0  2.3  2.6  3.0  3.3  3.8  4.5  5.9
LITTLE RIVER
 LITTLE RIVER  30.0  1.4  1.5  1.5  2.0  2.1  2.4  3.0  4.9  7.2
 ROCKDALE      30.0  4.5  5.5  6.8  8.3 11.0 12.1 14.7 16.0 18.5
 CAMERON       30.0  1.3  2.3  3.5  5.1  7.7  8.7 11.7 15.4 22.7
NAVASOTA RIVER
 GROESBECK      7.0  1.8  2.1  2.3  2.5  2.7  3.4  3.9  4.4  7.7
 EASTERLY      19.0  3.0  4.1  4.5  6.5  8.5 10.9 16.1 18.8 22.0

LOCATION        90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%
--------        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
LK GRAHAM      1061.3 1061.3 1061.3 1061.6 1062.5 1062.7 1063.0
                20%    10%
                ---    ---
               1063.5 1064.4

HUBBARD CR LK  1154.8 1154.8 1154.8 1154.8 1154.9 1155.1 1155.4
               1156.1 1159.9

LOCATION         90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
--------         ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
LK PALO PINTO   850.3 850.3 850.3 850.3 850.5 851.2 851.7 852.7 853.5
LK PAT CLEBURNE 728.3 728.3 728.4 728.4 728.5 728.7 728.9 729.3 730.8

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$





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