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590
FGUS73 KFSD 061359
ESFFSD
SDC005-011-027-035-061-067-079-083-087-099-101-111-125-127-135-
MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-NEC043-051-
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-271200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
800 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:FLOYD RIVER
SHELDON             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  10   35    7   23   <5   <5
ALTON               12.0   16.0   18.0 :  12   37   <5   18   <5    5
LE MARS             20.0   21.0   24.0 :   5   16    5   12   <5   <5
:WEST BRANCH FLOYD
STRUBLE             14.0   15.0   16.0 :  <5   13   <5    9   <5   <5
:FLOYD RIVER
MERRILL             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   11   <5    8   <5    5
JAMES               26.0   30.0   34.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
SPENCER             10.0   13.0   15.0 :  26   56    6   23   <5    8
SPENCER             10.0   14.0   16.0 :  33   74    5   23   <5    9
:OCHEYEDAN RIVER
SPENCER              8.0    9.5   10.5 :  14   50   11   23   <5   11
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
LINN GROVE          18.0   19.5   21.0 :  32   64    8   39   <5   16
CHEROKEE            17.0   21.0   24.0 :  11   42   <5   18   <5    6
CORRECTIONVILLE     19.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5   20   <5   17   <5   10
:WEST FORK DITCH
HORNICK             20.0   22.0   27.0 :   8   22    5   15   <5   <5
:PERRY CREEK
SIOUX CITY          24.0   26.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
BROOKINGS            9.0   10.5   12.0 :  55   50   36   36   15   25
DELL RAPIDS         12.0   14.0   15.0 :  26   34    8   22    5    9
SIOUX FALLS 60TH    12.0   14.0   16.0 :  21   33    7   22   <5    8
:SKUNK CREEK
SIOUX FALLS         11.5   15.0   17.0 :  <5   10   <5    5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
SIOUX FALLS NORTH   16.0   18.0   31.0 :  20   34   11   30   <5   <5
:SPLIT ROCK CREEK
CORSON               8.5   11.0   14.0 :  25   32    8   19   <5    7
:ROCK RIVER
LUVERNE             10.0   12.0   14.0 :  29   16    5    7   <5   <5
ROCK RAPIDS         13.0   16.0   19.0 :  38   40   25   21   11   11
ROCK VALLEY         16.0   17.0   19.0 :  15   12    8   11   <5    8
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
HAWARDEN            15.0   20.0   23.0 :  50   52   10   28   <5   13
AKRON               16.0   18.0   20.0 :  48   57   31   44   18   30
SIOUX CITY          99.0  105.0  108.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES RIVER
HURON               11.0   13.0   15.0 :  39   43   30   35   22   22
FORESTBURG          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  37   43   28   31   16   18
MITCHELL            17.0   20.0   22.0 :  43   52   26   33   15   21
:FIRESTEEL CREEK
MOUNT VERNON         8.0   13.0   15.0 :  43   44   13   14    5   <5
:JAMES RIVER
SCOTLAND            13.0   14.0   16.0 :  38   51   31   44   16   29
YANKTON             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  31   48   23   35   16   29
:WEST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER               9.0   10.0   11.0 :   5   10   <5    6   <5   <5
:EAST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  15   23    9   11   <5   <5
:VERMILLION RIVER
DAVIS               11.0   13.0   15.0 :  35   39   17   31   <5    7
WAKONDA             14.0   15.5   17.0 :  39   40   28   34   22   31
VERMILLION          21.0   22.0   30.0 :  18   30   14   29   <5   <5
:REDWOOD RIVER
MARSHALL            14.0   15.0   16.5 :  18   13   15   10   13    7
:DES MOINES RIVER
JACKSON             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  10   24   <5   13   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:FLOYD RIVER
SHELDON               5.7    5.8    6.2    6.9    9.4   11.8   14.8
ALTON                 6.2    6.4    6.8    7.4    9.9   13.0   15.2
LE MARS              11.0   11.2   11.8   12.3   14.2   15.9   20.3
:WEST BRANCH FLOYD
STRUBLE               4.5    4.6    5.1    6.0    7.3   11.0   12.3
:FLOYD RIVER
MERRILL               0.5    1.0    1.5    2.6    3.9    6.0   10.3
JAMES                 9.7   10.1   10.4   11.4   12.8   14.7   18.2
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
SPENCER               5.6    6.0    6.3    7.3   10.0   12.1   13.3
SPENCER               6.2    6.9    7.3    8.6   11.1   13.3   14.3
:OCHEYEDAN RIVER
SPENCER               2.7    2.8    3.3    3.9    6.9    9.7   10.2
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
LINN GROVE           16.0   16.1   16.3   16.7   18.3   19.3   20.2
CHEROKEE              6.0    6.5    7.1    8.9   14.3   17.3   18.6
CORRECTIONVILLE       6.6    7.0    7.5    9.0   13.4   16.6   17.7
:WEST FORK DITCH
HORNICK               7.6    7.9    9.3   11.7   15.6   19.2   22.3
:PERRY CREEK
SIOUX CITY            7.4    7.4    7.8    8.2    9.1   12.6   15.7
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
BROOKINGS             4.9    5.2    6.3    9.3   11.0   12.2   12.8
DELL RAPIDS           5.8    6.1    7.1   10.2   12.2   13.7   15.0
SIOUX FALLS 60TH      3.8    4.0    5.3    8.7   11.5   13.0   14.4
:SKUNK CREEK
SIOUX FALLS           4.9    5.1    5.4    5.9    6.6    7.3    8.4
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
SIOUX FALLS NORTH     8.3    8.4    9.4   12.2   14.7   18.2   19.3
:SPLIT ROCK CREEK
CORSON                3.8    3.9    4.5    5.6    8.6   10.7   12.2
:ROCK RIVER
LUVERNE               4.1    4.3    4.4    6.3   10.4   11.4   12.0
ROCK RAPIDS           8.6    8.8    9.2   12.1   16.1   19.0   20.5
ROCK VALLEY           6.0    6.1    6.8   10.4   15.0   16.5   18.3
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
HAWARDEN              9.5   10.4   12.1   15.0   18.6   20.1   22.3
AKRON                 9.4   10.3   12.0   15.6   19.7   21.2   22.2
SIOUX CITY           85.7   86.2   86.7   88.8   92.9   94.7   96.8
:JAMES RIVER
HURON                 9.4    9.4    9.8   10.6   14.5   19.0   20.5
FORESTBURG            5.3    5.4    6.4   10.5   15.2   18.6   19.4
MITCHELL             10.3   11.3   12.9   15.3   20.6   24.2   25.5
:FIRESTEEL CREEK
MOUNT VERNON          2.2    2.2    3.6    6.7    9.5   14.3   14.9
:JAMES RIVER
SCOTLAND              5.0    5.2    6.1    9.5   14.9   18.5   19.9
YANKTON               2.3    3.1    4.5    7.5   13.8   20.6   23.5
:WEST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER                1.0    1.1    1.9    2.8    3.8    5.8    8.7
:EAST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER                4.2    4.3    6.2    8.6   11.0   13.4   14.6
:VERMILLION RIVER
DAVIS                 3.3    3.7    6.5    9.1   11.6   14.2   14.8
WAKONDA               4.3    4.6    7.7   11.5   16.1   17.5   17.6
VERMILLION            3.6    3.9    7.4   11.4   16.0   23.6   25.8
:REDWOOD RIVER
MARSHALL              8.3    8.7    9.1   10.1   13.0   19.1   22.2
:DES MOINES RIVER
JACKSON               6.1    6.1    6.7    7.6    9.7   12.6   13.9

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
MARSHALL              7.1    7.1    7.1    6.9    6.8    6.7    6.7
:DES MOINES RIVER
JACKSON               3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2

SUMMARY OF THE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...
THE CONDITIONAL SIMULATIONS BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE
THAT THERE ARE ROUGHLY NORMAL CHANCES OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VERMILLION RIVER...MUCH OF
THE BIG SIOUX RIVER...SPLIT ROCK CREEK...THE ROCK RIVER...THE LITTLE
SIOUX RIVER...AND THE REDWOOD RIVER. NORMAL CHANCES FOR MODERATE
FLOODING ARE CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE JAMES RIVER...FIRESTEEL CREEK...
THE WEST FORK OF THE VERMILLION RIVER...THE MIDDLE BIG SIOUX
RIVER...THE ROCK RIVER...AND THE REDWOOD RIVER. THE ONLY AREAS WITH
NORMAL CHANCES FOR MAJOR FLOODING ARE THE JAMES RIVER NEAR HURON AND
FORESTBURG...THE ROCK RIVER NEAR ROCK RAPIDS...AND THE REDWOOD RIVER.

CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS...
MOST OF THE REGION HAS ONLY 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH...CONSISTING
OF 1 INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT. THE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA FROM
BROOKINGS AND MOODY COUNTIES IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS 10 TO 20
INCHES DEEP AND HAS A WATER CONTENT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE SNOW PACK
DENSITY IS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 PERCENT. SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEN THE SNOW DENSITY GETS OVER 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE/FROST CONDITIONS...
THE LATEST MODELED SOIL MOISTURE SHOWS -1 TO -3 INCH ANOMALIES...
WITH THE DRIEST AREAS BEING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. FROST DEPTHS IN THE SOILS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE
FROM AROUND 20 INCHES IN THE SOUTH TO 40 INCHES IN THE NORTH. DUE TO
THE DEEP FROST...ANY SNOW MELT OR EARLY SPRING RAINS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF UNTIL THE SOILS CAN BEGIN TO
THAW.

CURRENT RIVER/ICE CONDITIONS...
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL ICE COVERED...WITH ICE
THICKNESSES OF 1 TO 2 FEET OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. FOR THE MOST
SOUTHERN AREAS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THERE IS SOME OPEN WATER...
CURRENT STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DUE
TO THE THICK ICE...ICE JAMS WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MELT/BREAKUP PERIOD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.

TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE LATEST
30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK
FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL... NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/FSD FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MARCH 27.

$$

MG









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