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495
FGUS74 KEWX 212034
ESFEWX
TXC465-221434-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PECOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE PECOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE PECOS RIVER NEAR LANGTRY
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LANGTRY FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
3.1 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                    VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
PECOS RIVER
 LANGTRY      10.0    1.8  2.2  2.5  2.7  3.1  3.9  5.1  9.9 14.2
 PANDALE       7.0    1.7  2.0  3.4  3.8  4.3  5.4  6.6  8.7  9.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.





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