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573
FGUS73 KEAX 241811
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-251800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
111 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  15    8   <5    8   <5   <5

:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  51   33   49   27   <5   <5
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  23   17   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  32   13   27   13   19    7

:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti   23.0   28.0   35.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  15    6   <5    5   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  16    6   15    6   <5   <5

:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  52   17   23    9   <5   <5

:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  32   19   14   10   <5    5
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  <5   17   <5    9   <5   <5

:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev   35.0   39.0   48.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Bannister Road      34.0   40.0   42.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 Highway          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
63rd Street         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kansas City Blue    33.0   38.0   44.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stadium Drive       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
40 Highway          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17th Street         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12th Street         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  35   27   31   20   <5   <5

:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  42   25   30   16    8   15

:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  54   50   47   37   15   10
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  59   54   36   22   <5   <5

:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  41   36   33   22   <5   <5

:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  47   38    9    5   <5   <5

:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  48   29   30   20   <5   <5

:Thompson River
Trenton             30.0   33.0   37.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  20   10    6   <5   <5   <5
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  15    8    5   <5   <5   <5
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  36   22   26   12    6   <5
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  55   43   50   36   <5   <5

:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  12    6    6   <5   <5   <5
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  44   31   13    9   <5   <5

:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  33   66    6   63   <5   <5

:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  59   58   36   34   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet



In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.5    2.9    7.3   12.4   23.2   27.3   27.8

:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.1    3.4   10.8   17.5   19.5   20.8   21.4
Tonganoxie            2.5    4.3    9.6   16.8   22.8   24.8   26.0

:Kansas River
De Soto               6.1    6.2    8.7   11.1   13.0   16.0   16.5

:Tarkio River
Fairfax               7.8    8.7   10.2   12.3   19.0   27.1   27.9

:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     6.3    6.7    8.8   11.0   13.4   19.3   24.3

:102 River
Maryville             6.3    8.7   10.1   12.3   15.0   21.1   22.4
Rosendale             3.7    7.2   10.1   13.1   15.8   20.1   22.0

:Platte River
Agency                7.5   10.7   15.7   20.4   24.8   28.4   28.9

:Little Platte River
Smithville           14.6   14.6   16.3   17.3   18.4   21.2   26.7

:Platte River
Sharps Station        5.9   12.6   19.3   25.3   26.9   29.7   31.0
Platte City           1.0    7.6   13.6   19.6   23.5   28.3   29.7

:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    25.3   25.5   25.9   26.3   28.9   32.9   34.5
Bannister Road        5.5    5.7    6.7    9.7   19.1   25.8   29.8
71 Highway           33.3   33.4   34.4   37.1   44.1   49.0   51.7
63rd Street          24.1   24.2   25.0   26.0   30.2   35.6   39.8
Kansas City Blue      8.7    9.1   10.6   13.6   19.8   24.0   26.1
Stadium Drive         6.4    6.7    8.4   11.5   20.3   23.5   26.5
40 Highway            1.4    2.0    4.2    6.6   12.7   15.9   18.7
17th Street           0.9    1.1    2.0    3.4    9.2   12.4   14.9
12th Street           4.4    5.0    6.8   11.3   17.8   20.5   22.9

:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.8    4.9    6.3    8.8   11.9   15.7   18.1

:Crooked River
Richmond              6.1    6.1   10.6   15.7   21.9   24.7   25.5

:Thompson River
Trenton              11.4   11.4   13.5   16.8   21.8   27.1   30.2

:Grand River
Pattonsburg           3.6    3.6    5.4   14.8   22.6   27.9   31.5
Gallatin              4.6    4.6    7.1   14.3   21.5   27.6   33.3
Chillicothe           6.5    6.5   11.9   17.5   28.1   33.0   36.1
Sumner               10.9   11.0   20.9   28.1   33.2   36.3   37.4

:Chariton River
Novinger              4.1    4.1    4.7   11.0   14.9   20.3   23.8
Prairie Hill          4.7    4.7    8.6   14.3   17.1   20.0   20.9

:South Grand River
Urich                 5.2    6.4   16.0   21.8   24.3   25.2   26.1

:Big Creek
Blairstown           10.1   10.1   17.1   20.6   24.8   27.1   28.0



In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9

:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
Tonganoxie            2.4    2.4    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0

:Kansas River
De Soto               5.0    4.9    4.7    4.4    4.4    4.2    4.1

:Tarkio River
Fairfax               5.8    5.7    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.3

:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     6.0    5.8    5.4    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0

:102 River
Maryville             6.2    6.1    5.9    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6
Rosendale             3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2

:Platte River
Agency                6.5    6.4    5.9    5.7    5.5    5.5    5.5

:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.4   12.4   12.4   12.4   12.3   12.2   12.0

:Platte River
Sharps Station        4.6    4.5    4.2    3.5    3.2    3.2    3.2
Platte City          -0.6   -0.7   -1.1   -1.8   -2.0   -2.3   -2.3

:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.6
Bannister Road        4.3    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
71 Highway           32.1   32.1   32.1   32.0   32.0   32.0   32.0
63rd Street          23.0   23.0   22.6   22.3   22.2   22.1   22.0
Kansas City Blue      6.7    6.7    6.6    6.5    6.5    6.5    6.5
Stadium Drive         5.0    5.0    4.9    4.5    3.7    3.2    2.9
40 Highway           -1.0   -1.1   -1.2   -1.3   -1.4   -1.4   -1.4
17th Street          -0.5   -0.6   -0.9   -1.1   -1.2   -1.3   -1.3
12th Street           2.4    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1

:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.7    4.6    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.1

:Crooked River
Richmond              6.0    6.0    5.8    5.7    5.5    5.4    5.4

:Thompson River
Trenton              11.2   10.9   10.3    9.9    9.7    9.6    9.6

:Grand River
Pattonsburg           3.4    3.3    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3    2.3
Gallatin              4.3    4.2    2.9    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
Chillicothe           6.0    5.7    4.1    3.5    2.7    2.3    2.2
Sumner               10.3   10.1    8.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

:Chariton River
Novinger              3.1    3.1    1.9    0.5    0.1   -1.2   -1.2
Prairie Hill          4.0    4.0    3.0    2.4    2.0    1.2    1.2

:South Grand River
Urich                 4.7    4.6    4.1    3.6    3.1    2.8    2.8

:Big Creek
Blairstown            9.8    9.6    8.9    8.3    7.8    7.4    7.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.











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