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PAC001-009-013-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-061-
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 8...

...FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THIS SEASON...

INTRODUCTION.

DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ISSUES A SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING (NOT
FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BASED ON A CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO
RIVER FLOODING. ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THESE FACTORS INCLUDE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE
WEST BRANCH...JUNIATA...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. ALSO COVERED ARE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
LOWER ALLEGHENY BASINS...INCLUDING AREAS FROM WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES IN THE NORTH...THROUGH CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTH.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THURSDAY APRIL 3RD 2014 THROUGH THURSDAY
APRIL 17TH 2014.

IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW
OR BELOW AVERAGE.

DETAILED DISCUSSION.

TWO WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED AVERAGE.

CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
NO ACTIVE FLOODING IS OBSERVED IN THE REGION.

RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE STATE COLLEGE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
LAST 30 DAYS (FEBRUARY 17 2014 - MARCH 19 2014) IS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SNOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
MOST OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION HAS MELTED...WHICH IS
TYPICAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

SNOW DATA AND INFORMATION SOURCES INCLUDE THE NOAA/NWS
OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER
(WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV)...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...THE COMMUNITY RAIN, HAIL AND SNOW NETWORK
(COCORAHS) AND OTHERS. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE SEEN AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC
(LOWER CASE) AND WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

RIVER ICE...AVERAGE.
MOST OF THE RIVER ICE HAS BROKEN UP OR DETERIORATED ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

FOLLOW RIVER ICE CONDITIONS AT
HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP/HYDRO/RIVERICE/INDEX.PHP (LOWER CASE)

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV (LOWER CASE)
ON THE INTERNET.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE REPORTS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE REGION IS
REPORTING BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AVERAGE VALUES ARE OBSERVED.

MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS (LOWER CASE.
CHOOSE SOIL MOISTURE) AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV (LOWER CASE).

GROUND WATER...BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE.
MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

CURRENT GROUND WATER CONDITIONS BASED ON A 30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
CAN BE FOUND AT HTTP://PA.WATER.USGS.GOV/MONITOR/GW/INDEX.HTML
(LOWER CASE)

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
MOST WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS WITHIN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARE
HOLDING AVERAGE STORAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS ARE MOST FLOOD
CONTROL RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST SHOWS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN THE REGION...FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 9 - APRIL 13 IS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 11 - APRIL 17 IS FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...AVERAGE.
ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING IS
THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS. AHPS GENERATES
PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...EXTENT AND
CONDITION OF ANY SNOW PACK...ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA. FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD...
AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW
AVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY OBSERVED DURING
THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

SUMMARY OF FLOOD POTENTIAL APRIL 3 TO APRIL 17 2014: ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE WEEK WEEKS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REGIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

OVERVIEW:
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW AVERAGE.
SNOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
RIVER ICE...AVERAGE.
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
GROUND WATER...BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
AHPS...AVERAGE.
OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...AVERAGE.

THE IS THE LAST FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THIS SEASON.

OTHER HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
THE STATE COLLEGE INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP
(LOWER CASE).

$$

CR




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