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FGUS71 KBTV 221603
ESFBTV
NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-
027-241615-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1103 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /2/...

...LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW MELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING...

THIS IS THE SECOND FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY THROUGH THE WINTER AND
SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT TO
SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT, AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SNOW MELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING
THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY. SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION IS BELOW
NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. RIVERS HAVE A
SOLID AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER, ALTHOUGH INCREASES IN RIVER FLOWS
OR ICE BREAKUP ARE NOT FORECAST.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

THERE HAVE BEEN SMALL ADDITIONS TO THE SNOW PACK THROUGH MID
JANUARY, HOWEVER SNOW DEPTH AND THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK
REMAINS BELOW NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTH IN NORTHERN NEW YORK VARIES CONSIDERABLY, FROM FOUR TO
SIX INCHES IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO EIGHT INCHES TO A FOOT
IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE HIGH PEAKS REGION IN ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK HAD SNOW DEPTHS OF ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE VALLEYS AND TWO
TO FOUR FEET NEAR THE SUMMITS.

IN VERMONT, SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM FOUR TO TEN INCHES IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS, WITH TWO TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT HAD A CONSISTENT DEEPER
SNOWPACK WITH A FOOT TO 18 INCHES OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN BUILDING
TO TWO TO FOUR FEET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT HAD JUST A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW COVER.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE LIQUID WATER CONTENT HELD IN THE
SNOW PACK WAS ALSO BELOW NORMAL. THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK CONTAINED A HALF TO ONE INCH OF
LIQUID WATER IN THE SNOW PACK. THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF NEW YORK
AS WELL AS MOST OF VERMONT SNOW PACK HELD TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
LIQUID IN THE VALLEYS AND NEARLY SIX INCHES NEAR THE SUMMITS. SNOW
COVER ON THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FLOOR HELD A HALF INCH OR LESS OF
LIQUID WATER.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

EXTENSIVE RIVER ICE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE ARCTIC COLD SINCE THE
END OF DECEMBER WITH A SOLID SMOOTH ICE COVER AND ONLY A FEW OPEN
LEADS. ICE THICKNESS IS ESTIMATED TO BE SIX INCHES TO NEAR A FOOT.
RIVER FLOWS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WINTER MONTHS.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL. THE THIN SNOW COVER AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FROST TO PENETRATE DEEP INTO THE SOIL,
WITH FROST DEPTHS IN BARE GROUND DOWN TO 20 INCHES. AREAS THAT
HAVE RETAINED SOME INSULATING SNOW COVER REPORT FROST DEPTHS OF
EIGHT TO TEN INCHES. FROZEN SOILS WOULD ENHANCE RUNOFF RATHER
THAN ABSORB EXCESS MOISTURE.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY. COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TO KEEP THE SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE LOCKED IN
PLACE. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER WITH PERIODIC CLIPPER WEATHER
SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONT PASSAGES. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED,
AND ANY ADDITIONS TO SNOW PACK WILL BE LIGHT.

...SUMMARY...

SNOW MELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
FEBRUARY. SNOW COVER IS BUILDING BUT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL, AND
THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO PRODUCE
RAIN OR MELT THE SNOW. COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED RIVER ICE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS, AND THE ICE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE AS
SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 5.

ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BTV.

$$

HANSON




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