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020
FGUS74 KBRO 182107
ESFBRO
TXC047-192107-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
407 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE LOS OLMOS CREEK BASIN IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...

THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE LOS OLMOS CREEK BASIN IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE CREEK COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE LOS OLMOS CREEK NEAR FALFURRIAS
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THE FALFURRIAS FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 2.3 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
   VALID [ 9/17/2014 - 12/17/2014 ]

 LOCATION    FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
 --------    -----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
 LOS OLMOS CREEK
  FALFURRIAS  11.0   1.7  1.7  1.9  2.0  2.3  3.0  3.5  4.2  6.0

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE CREEK AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=BRO.
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$

CASTILLO






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