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232
FGUS71 KBOX 221805
ESFBOX
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-
027-NHC005-011-RIC001-003-005-007-009-241815-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
105 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
BELOW NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS IS THE SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2015
SEASON.  FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO EARLY
SPRING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED
ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.  THIS
INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM AND RIVER
LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE...ALONG WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES...

DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS GENEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MELTED SNOW TOTALED 3.5 TO 5
INCHES...WHICH WAS NORMAL TO ABOUT AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL.  ACROSS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED
FROM 5 TO OVER 8 INCHES...WHICH WAS 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THAT AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING DECEMBER AVERAGED 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 TO 21 RANGED FROM 1.5
TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...AND
EASTERN CONNECTICUT. THIS RANGED FROM NORMAL TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL.

HIGHER LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES FELL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL
CONNECTICUT. THIS RANGED FROM NORMAL TO OVER AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL FOR JANUARY TO DATE HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 4
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

THE SNOW DEPTH AS OF THURSDAY JANUARY 22 WAS ZERO TO 1 INCH ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...AND
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THIS AREA WAS
NEGLIGIBLE. THIS WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES HAD 1
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER DEPTHS ACROSS
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS UP TO 0.5
INCH...EXCEPT UP TO AN INCH IN WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. THIS WAS
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

STREAM FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RANGED FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL IN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS...AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN RHODE ISLAND.

FROM JANUARY 7 TO 18...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENABLED ICE
BUILDUP ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR. ICE BUILDUP ON THE MILLERS RIVER IN ROYALSTON CAUSED
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS IN THAT VICINITY LAST WEEK...BUT LEVELS HAVE
SINCE RECEDED. NO FLOOD IMPACTS WERE REPORTED AS A RESULT OF THE
ELEVATED RIVER STAGE. RIVER ICE WAS ALSO REPORTED ON THE MILLERS
RIVER IN ATHOL BUT AS OF LAST WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL WAS
STILL FLOWING OPEN IN THE ATHOL AREA.

DURING THIS PAST WEEKEND...RAINFALL OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES FELL ACROSS
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY IN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CONNECTICUT...CAUSING SOME OF THE ICE THAT HAD FORMED TO MOVE AND
IN SOME CASES FLUSH OUT. THERE IS LIKELY CONSIDERABLE VARIATION
IN RIVER ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NUMBER OF ICE AFFECTED RIVERS AND STREAMS IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN STEADY OR CONTINUE TO GROW AS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 2 WEEKS.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

AS OF JANUARY 22 THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXAMINING GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) MOST GROUND
WATER LEVELS WERE REPORTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. IN RHODE
ISLAND THERE WERE POCKETS WHERE GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL DURING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.  A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BEING POSSIBLE WITHIN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN...SIGNIFICANT
FRESHWATER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE
ARE OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NWS TAUNTON MA FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MAKE A CLOSE PASS TO OUR REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MORE SNOW. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING SUNDAY AS WELL AS
DURING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...FROM
JANUARY 29 TO FEBRUARY 4...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD.

...SUMMARY...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL AND STREAM LEVELS WERE NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT SNOWPACK AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME BUILDUP IN SNOWPACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
WITH MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.  HOWEVER WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND INITIAL BELOW NORMAL SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE RIVER ICE BUILDUP IS EXPECTED TO BE
GRADUAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED FREEZE UP ICE JAMS SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WITHOUT A SNOWPACK. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS
AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT HAZARDS...THEN
CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6.

$$


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