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397
FGUS74 KAMA 061434
ESFAMA
OKC007-025-139-TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-
341-357-359-375-381-393-421-483-070600-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
833 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WAS BELOW NORMAL FROM OCTOBER
THROUGH FEBRUARY. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE RUNNING AT NEAR
HISTORICAL LOWS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DUE TO THE PROLONGED DROUGHT.

RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS...
RIVERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ARE RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS ARE WELL BELOW
CAPACITY.

DROUGHT AREAS...
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR PERSISTENT OR INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
EITHER ABOVE-NORMAL...BELOW-NORMAL...OR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL...
FLASH FLOODING AND SHORT TERM FLOODING IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES USUALLY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION
EVENTS AND ARE NOT USUALLY TIED TO SOIL MOISTURE...RESERVOIR
STORAGE...OR OTHER PRECURSOR FACTORS. HOWEVER...THE ON-GOING DROUGHT
HAS SHIFTED HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FAR ENOUGH BELOW THE NORM THAT A
BELOW-NORMAL FLOOD OUTLOOK IS BEING FORECAST. THUS...THE OVERALL
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE ARKANSAS RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND THE
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND
FORECASTS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...GO TO:

                  WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA
                  WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC

$$

GOEHRING/COCKRELL





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