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AXUS74 KTSA 062036
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-070845-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
336 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS RECEIVED BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING SEPTEMBER...CAUSING DROUGHT AND
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO OCTOBER.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 30 SEPTEMBER
2014...SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK...WESTERN TULSA...AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PARTS OF
OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG...ROGERS...TULSA...OKFUSKEE...
OKMULGEE...MAYES...ADAIR AND SEQUOYAH COUNTIES IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS WASHINGTON...MADISON...AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF
HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...PUSHMATAHA...AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE ABOUT
EVERY TWO WEEKS AT WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 5 OCTOBER 2014 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.2-0.3 IN
PAWNEE...WESTERN OSAGE...LATIMER...AND EASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES /WHERE
1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY DRY/ AT 2 INCHES BELOW
GROUND. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAD VALUES OF 0.6 OR HIGHER.
AT 10 INCHES BELOW GROUND...THESE VALUES RANGED FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 IN
PORTIONS OF OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK...TULSA...ROGERS...AND MAYES
COUNTIES. 24 INCHES BELOW THE GROUND...THE FRACTIONAL WATER INDEX
WAS 0.1 TO 0.3 ACROSS OKFUSKEE...CREEK...NORTHWEST OKMULGEE...FAR
SOUTHEAST OSAGE...TULSA...ROGERS...FAR NORTHWEST
WAGONER...MAYES...DELAWARE...AND OTTAWA COUNTIES.

AS OF 5 OCTOBER 2014...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THE UPPER ZONE IS 10 TO
30 PERCENT FULL ACROSS MOST OF THE D2 AREA AND PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO 30 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS REPRESENTS A
SLIGHT TO MODERATE AGRICULTURALLY DRY AREA. THE LOWER ZONE WAS 10
TO 30 PERCENT FULL FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WHICH REPRESENTS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY
DRY AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF WASHINGTON...OSAGE...PAWNEE...
TULSA...ROGERS...OKMULGEE...AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES WERE ONLY 1 TO
10 PERCENT FULL...WHICH IS EXTREME TO SEVERE HYDROLOGICALLY DRY.
THESE VALUES RANGE FROM 70 TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 5 OCTOBER 2014 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF 20 TO 60 MM
/0.8 TO 2.4 INCHES/ ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS.
REPORTS OF FARM PONDS GOING DRY IN SOUTHERN OSAGE AND TULSA COUNTIES.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BROUGHT A TOTAL OF 0.10 TO AROUND 3
INCHES OF RAIN TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE
LAST 7 DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY...PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
WERE ON THE LOW END OF THE RAINFALL.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 IN
OSAGE...PAWNEE...AND WASHINGTON AR COUNTIES TO AROUND 10 INCHES
IN SEBASTIAN AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. HASKELL...NORTHERN LE
FLORE...SEBASTIAN...SOUTHERN SEQUOYAH...EASTERN LATIMER...AND
CHOCTAW COUNTIES HAVE HAD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
HAVE RECEIVED 25-90 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL. PORTIONS OF
OSAGE...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON AR...AND BENTON COUNTIES HAVE ONLY
RECEIVED 10-25 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 5 OCTOBER 2014...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 32ND DRIEST PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 45TH DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 32ND WETTEST PERIOD. FOR THE LAST 60 DAYS ENDING
5 OCTOBER 2014...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 42ND DRIEST
PERIOD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 37TH DRIEST AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 40TH DRIEST PERIOD. FOR JANUARY
1-OCTOBER 5...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 11TH DRIEST ON
RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 16TH DRIEST...AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 33RD DRIEST.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAVY
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE IF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALL
OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2014 /ISSUED 30
SEPTEMBER 2014/ INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE
FOR ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND
BELOW MEDIAN RAINFALL ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID SEPTEMBER 18 THROUGH
DECEMBER 31 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...THE SKIATOOK
LAKE ELEVATION WAS 698.6 FEET ON 10/06/2014...THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE
LAKE WAS INITIALLY FILLED IN 1984. THE FOLLOWING LAKES WERE
REPORTING LEVELS GREATER THAN 3 PERCENT BELOW THE CONSERVATION
POOL AS OF OCTOBER 6: SKIATOOK LAKE 57 PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 79
PERCENT...EUFAULA LAKE 82 PERCENT...TENKILLER LAKE 84
PERCENT...KEYSTONE LAKE 84 PERCENT...BIRCH LAKE 93 PERCENT...AND
HUGO LAKE 96 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW FOR THE MUDDY BOGGY CREEK NEAR UNGER...THE RED RIVER
AT ARTHUR CITY...AND THE BARON FORK AT DUTCH MILLS WERE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL WITH VALUES BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AS OF 5 OCTOBER 2014. BIRD CREEK AT AVANT...THE ARKANSAS
RIVER AT TULSA...AND THE DEEP FORK RIVER NEAR BEGGS WERE BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 7 NOVEMBER 2014 OR SOONER IF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

$$








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