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702
AXUS74 KTSA 072117
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-080930-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2014

...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT SMALL AREA OF SEVERE
DROUGHT REMAINS...

SYNOPSIS...

A COUPLE OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS OVER THE
PAST MONTH HAVE HELPED TO IMPROVE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...SOME
LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 4 NOVEMBER
2014...SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN CREEK...AND FAR WESTERN
TULSA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PARTS OF
OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK...TULSA...AND OKMULGEE COUNTIES IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER AREAS OF OSAGE...WASHINGTON...TULSA...OKMULGEE...OKFUSKEE...
MCINTOSH...PITTSBURG...AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ IS HOSTING RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 6 NOVEMBER 2014 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.8-1.0 ACROSS ALL
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY
DRY/ AT 2...10 AND 24 INCHES BELOW GROUND.

AS OF 7 NOVEMBER 2014...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONGER TERM RAINFALL AND SOIL MOISTURE
DEFICITS. THE UPPER ZONE...WHICH RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM
RAINFALL...IS OVER 40 PERCENT FULL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 100-150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A HUGO TO FORT SMITH LINE...WHERE THESE VALUES ARE
70-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE LOWER ZONE WAS 10 TO 30 PERCENT FULL
FOR MOST OF THE D0-D2 AREA IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH REPRESENTS
A SLIGHT TO MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY DRY AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
AREAS OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ALSO HAD VALUES OF 10-30 PERCENT FULL...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT FULL. THESE LOWER ZONE ANOMALIES FOR THE
D0-D2 AREA WERE LESS THAN 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH SEVERAL
SPOTS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. VALUES RANGED FROM 30 TO
OVER 110 PERCENT OF NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE D0-D2 AREA.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 6 NOVEMBER 2014 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS OF 20 TO 40 MM /0.8 TO
1.5 INCHES/ ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE D0-D2 AREA.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 9-13...WITH BOTH MAINSTEM
RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING RESULTING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT BROUGHT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NOVEMBER 3-4.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 3 TO
AROUND 10 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE LOWEST RAINFALL TOTALS PRIMARILY COINCIDE WITH THE D0-D2 AREA.
MOST OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
MCINTOSH...HASKELL...PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW AND SEBASTIAN COUNTIES
HAVE RECEIVED 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. IN THE LONGER TERM...LOCATIONS WEST OF A PAWHUSKA TO
PRYOR TO ANTLERS LINE HAVE ONLY RECEIVED 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE
NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 6 NOVEMBER 2014...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 12TH WETTEST PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 24TH WETTEST AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 26TH WETTEST PERIOD. FOR THE LAST 60 DAYS
ENDING 6 NOVEMBER 2014...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 34TH
WETTEST PERIOD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 38TH WETTEST AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 32ND WETTEST PERIOD. FOR JANUARY
1-NOVEMBER 6...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 25TH DRIEST ON
RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 30TH DRIEST...AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 42ND DRIEST.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
NOVEMBER 10. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION ON VETERANS DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON VETERANS DAY.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO
INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AS WELL.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2014 /ISSUED 31
OCTOBER 2014/ INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID OCTOBER 16 THROUGH
JANUARY 31 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BUT ARE LIKELY TO
IMPROVE.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...THE SKIATOOK
LAKE ELEVATION WAS 698.0 FEET ON 11/04/2014...THE LOWEST LEVEL
SINCE THE LAKE WAS INITIALLY FILLED IN 1984. THE FOLLOWING LAKES
WERE REPORTING LEVELS GREATER THAN 3 PERCENT BELOW THE
CONSERVATION POOL AS OF NOVEMBER 7: SKIATOOK LAKE 56
PERCENT...HEYBURN LAKE 67 PERCENT...EUFAULA LAKE 82
PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 83 PERCENT...KEYSTONE LAKE 90 PERCENT AND
BIRCH LAKE 95 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW FOR THE MUDDY BOGGY CREEK NEAR UNGER AND THE RED RIVER
AT ARTHUR CITY WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF 6 NOVEMBER 2014. THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AT TULSA AND THE DEEP FORK RIVER NEAR BEGGS WERE
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 5 DECEMBER 2014 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

$$








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