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AXUS75 KPSR 281321
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AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-291200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
620 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014

...DROUGHT LESSENS ITS GRIP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...

SYNOPSIS...

THE TYPICALLY DRY SPRING WEATHER KEPT DROUGHT CONDITIONS SOLIDLY IN
TACT...WITH SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DROUGHT DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF
THE MONSOON SEASON. HOWEVER...MORE EXPANSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST MONTH HAVE HELPED
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE MORE RAINFALL MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT MONTH...IT WILL BE WINTER RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL BE CRITICAL IN REFILLING RESERVOIRS
BEFORE NEXT SPRING. THUS...IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO RESERVOIR STORAGE
AND WATER USAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGEST DROUGHT IMPACTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.

EXTREME DROUGHT STILL REMAINS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF PINAL COUNTY.
SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY AND
MUCH OF GILA COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE RECENT RAINFALL
HAS ALLOW EASTERN IMPERIAL AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
LARGE PARTS OF YUMA...LA PAZ...AND SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTIES TO
IMPROVE BACK TO THE MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY. BOTH LONGER AND
SHORTER TERM RAINFALL HAVE BEEN BENEFICIAL FOR EASTERN YUMA AND LA
PAZ COUNTIES TO BRING THEM BACK TO ONLY  ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
CURRENTLY...AROUND 57% OF THE STATE OF ARIZONA IS AT SEVERE DROUGHT
LEVELS OR WORSE...WHICH IS AN EXCELLENT IMPROVEMENT AS COMPARED TO 3
MONTHS AGO WHEN OVER 76% OF THE STATE WAS AT SUCH LEVELS.

NEUTRAL EL NINO/LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TOWARDS
AN EL NINO EPISODE LATE THIS SUMMER. THERE IS STILL NO PREDICTABLE
INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL LATE SUMMER AND AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN
FROM AN EL NINO EVENT. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS
FULLY DEVELOPING DURING THE FALL AND WINTER SEASON. ONLY MODERATE
TO STRONG EL NINO CYCLES TYPICALLY HAVE A PREDICTABLE WET SIGNAL
FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE FALL AND WINTER
SEASONS...WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK EL NINO EPISODES. AT THIS
TIME...ALMOST ALL SIGNS POINT TO A WEAK EL NINO EPISODE AT BEST
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

WITH OVER THREE YEARS OF DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...IMPACTS
HAVE INCLUDED PERIODIC WATER HAULING NECESSARY FOR FARMERS AND
RANCHERS...AND DISTRESSED VEGETATION AND LOSS OF FORAGE ACREAGE.
LIVESTOCK ON REGIONAL RANCHES HAVE SUFFERED THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RANGE LAND AND PASTURE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED IN THE PAST MONTH OF THE MONSOON WITH ONLY 38% OF THE
STATE REPORTING POOR OR VERY POOR CONDITIONS VERSUS OVER HALF THE
STATE JUST A MONTH AGO. TOPSOIL MOISTURE HAS NOT RESPONDED AS
BENEFICIALLY AND HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS 36% SHORT OR VERY SHORT WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THE PAST MONTH.

AFTER A DRY SPRING WITH THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FIRES FORTUNATELY
MOSTLY AVERTED...INCREASES IN MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE PAST
MONTH HAVE LARGELY IMPROVED FUEL CONDITIONS. 10-HOUR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES CARRY A WIDE RANGE OF AROUND 3% TO OVER 10%
DEPENDING ON THE RECENT LATENCY OF RAINFALL. 100-HOUR DEAD FUELS
MOISTURE VALUES HAVE SHOWN FAR MORE IMPROVEMENT WITH VALUES RANGING
FROM 6% TO OVER 15%.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE SEASONAL WATER YEAR (SINCE OCT 1ST) AND CALENDAR YEAR REMAINS
DRIER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE OVERALL
DEFICITS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...THOUGH BENEFICIAL MONSOON RAINFALL HAS HELPED A FEW LOCATIONS
RECENTLY. BELOW IS A LISTING OF STATIONS AND PRECIPITATION RECORDED
SINCE OCTOBER 1 2013 AND JANUARY 1 2014. ALSO INCLUDED ARE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND SEASONAL HISTORICAL
RANKINGS (PLEASE NOTE SOME STATIONS HAVE A MORE LIMITED HISTORY WITH
RANKING NUMBERS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT).


                   SINCE   SINCE    SINCE     PERCENT     RANK
                   OCT 1   JAN 1    OCT 1    OF NORMAL    DRIEST
                   2013    2014     NORMAL
BOUSE AZ           4.76    3.27     5.03        95%       39TH
WICKENBURG AZ     11.38    8.21    10.66       107%       72ND
PHX SKY HARBOR AZ  5.04    2.22     7.28        69%       42ND
SCOTTSDALE AZ      6.62    3.54     9.26        71%       MSG
YUMA AZ            1.95    0.84     2.97        66%       60TH
BLYTHE CA          1.38    0.61     3.37        41%       11TH
TUCSON AZ          6.98    3.93    10.04        70%       23RD
FLAGSTAFF AZ      16.72   12.84    19.11        87%       48TH




PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE APPROXIMATE PROBABILITY VALUES FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR SEPTEMBER AND THE THREE MONTH
PERIOD OF SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER ARE GIVEN BELOW VALID FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THESE
NUMBERS ARE DERIVED FROM OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NOAA CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER AND ARE ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THEIR WEBSITE LISTED
BELOW. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CORRESPONDS TO THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE DURING THE ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD...WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE...BELOW...OR
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...AS WELL AS DURING THE
3-MONTH PERIOD OF SEP-OCT-NOV. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER AS WELL AS THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF SEP-OCT-NOV HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FALLING IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE CATEGORY.

                               TEMPERATURE         PRECIPITATION
                               PROBABILITY          PROBABILITY
                             ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW     ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW
                                  NORMAL               NORMAL
SEPTEMBER 2014...............   33 / 33 / 33        41 / 33 / 26
SEP-OCT-NOV 2014.............   34 / 34 / 32        40 / 33 / 27


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR LEVELS AT THIS POINT OF THE YEAR HAVE NOW FALLEN BEHIND
THOSE OF THE PAST 2 YEARS. EVEN EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
GENEROUS RAINFALL OVER GILA COUNTY HAS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON
RESERVOIR LEVELS. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE WINTER RAIN AND SNOW LATER
IN THE YEAR TO MAKE AN APPRECIABLE DENT IN RESERVOIR DEFICITS.


               08/26/14     08/26/13     08/26/12
               --------     --------     --------
ROOSEVELT         38           44           50
HORSE MESA        94           93           92
MORMON FLAT       95           95           98
STEWARD MTN       94           94           93
  TOTAL SALT      49           53           58

HORSESHOE          0            0            3
BARTLETT          78           98           45
  TOTAL VERDE     48           61           29

  TOTAL SYSTEM    49           54           54


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED ON OR AROUND
SEPTEMBER 20TH.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NWS FORECAST OFFICE PHOENIX...WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
  AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM VARIOUS
FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE  ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - PHOENIX
PO BOX 52025
PHOENIX AZ 85072
602-275-0073
W-PSR.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$








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