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425
AXUS74 KMEG 302023
DGTMEG
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-MOC069-155-
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-047-053-
069-071-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-157-167-183-310830-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
223 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

             ...DROUGHT EXPANDS IN THE MIDSOUTH...

SYNOPSIS...

WEATHER PATTERNS THE LAST 60S DAYS HAVE PRODUCED MINOR DROUGHT IN
THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. SHORT-TERM DROUGHT
RELIEF WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND DUE TO SOME RAIN. HOWEVER, THE
DROUGHT SHOULD EXPAND IN THE MIDSOUTH OVERALL IN FEBRUARY. MORE
NORMAL RAIN IS EXPECTED MARCH THROUGH MAY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS.
DRY WEATHER IS AFFECTING WINTER WHEAT CONDITION IN THE MIDSOUTH.
ALTHOUGH WINTER WHEAT IS IN DORMANCY, MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LOW IN
THE TOP LAYER OF FIELDS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST TENNESSEE, EAST AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WORSEN IN FEBRUARY, EARLY GROWTH COULD BE DELAYED. RAIN COMING
THIS WEEKEND WILL BENEFIT WHEAT.

DRY WEATHER IS HELPING FARMERS PREPARE FOR SPRING PLANTING.

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER HAS DRIED GRASS. GRASS FIRES
ARE MORE NUMEROUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

FORESTERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE DRY WEATHER TO BURN BRUSH
AND TRASH OUT OF WOODS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

RAIN HAS ONLY BEEN 25% TO 75% PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MIDSOUTH WAS NEAR NORMAL.

RAIN OUTLOOK...
THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER OF RAIN IN
THE MIDSOUTH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND WEEK IN FEBRUARY. EL NINO SHOULD WANE SOME MARCH THROUGH
MAY. A WEAKER EL NINO MARCH THROUGH MAY WOULD INCREASE OUR CHANCE
OF RAIN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ABNORMALLY LOW. RIVER GAGES INDICATE
THE RIVER IS AROUND 2 TO 3 DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE OR NO FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
FEBRUARY. TRIBUTARY RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE MOSTLY RUNNING AT
BASE FLOW. FLOOD THREAT OF TRIBUTARIES STILL REMAINS DESPITE
DRY WEATHER. AN EPISODE OF TRAINING STORMS COULD EASILY
CAUSE CREEKS TO GO OVERBANK AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF
ROADS.

THE NEXT DROUGHT STATMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... DATA AND ANALYSIS FOR THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT
WERE CONTRIBUTED BY THE USDA, THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER, THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS, THE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, FAA, STATE
AGENCIES, AND LOCALITIES.

$$







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